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Why Is PulteGroup (PHM) Up 1.8% Since Last Earnings Report?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for PulteGroup (PHM - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is PulteGroup due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
PulteGroup Q4 Earnings Beat, Revenues Lag, Orders Up
PulteGroup reported mixed results in fourth-quarter 2023, wherein earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimates, but revenues missed the same. Both metrics decreased year over year.
Nonetheless, during the latter part of the fourth quarter, PulteGroup observed a notable surge in buyer activity, mainly attributed to declining interest rates. December emerged as the quarter's peak sales month. With the anticipation of sustained lower interest rates in 2024, the company remains optimistic that the enhanced affordability landscape will continue to attract prospective buyers.
The year 2024 could witness heightened demand for homebuying, supported by a robust job market, lower interest rates, and a limited inventory of existing homes. PulteGroup, equipped with a readily available supply of homes and lots, is strategically positioned to leverage these market conditions for business expansion, ensuring robust cash flow and substantial returns.
Inside the Headlines
PHM reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.28, which beat the consensus mark of $3.20 by 2.5% but decreased 14.8% from $3.85 reported a year ago.
Total revenues of $4.29 billion missed the consensus mark of $4.48 billion by 4.2% and decreased 15.5% from the year-ago figure of $5.08 billion.
Segmental Discussion
PulteGroup primarily operates through two business segments — Homebuilding and Financial Services.
Revenues from the Homebuilding segment were down 16.1% year over year to $4.2 billion. Home sale revenues of $4.17 billion declined 16% year over year, mainly due to lower deliveries and average selling price of homes closed. Land sale revenues rose 24.1% from a year ago to $34.5 million.
The number of homes closed dropped 13.9% year over year to 7,615 units from the year-ago level. The average selling price of homes delivered was $547,000, down 2.5% year over year.
New home orders gained 57% year over year to 6,214 units for the quarter, benefiting from strong demand and a drop in cancelations. The value of new orders also rose 56% from a year ago to $3.4 billion. The cancelation rate was 9% of the beginning backlog, down 200 basis points from the prior-year period.
Most importantly, its backlog, which represents orders yet to be closed, was 12,146 units, down 0.2% year over year. In addition, potential housing revenues from the backlog decreased 4.6% from the prior-year quarter to $7.32 billion.
Home sales gross margin was down 50 bps year over year to 28.9% for the reported quarter. SG&A expenses (as a percentage of home sales revenues) grew 40 bps to 7.4% from a year ago.
Revenues from the Financial Services segment increased 30.2% year over year to $93.9 million. Pretax income for the segment increased 83.3% to $44 million from a year ago.
2023 Highlights
Earnings came in at $11.72 per share on revenues of $16.1 billion (up from $16 billion in 2022). During the year, the company delivered 28,603 homes (down 1.7% year over year) with an ASP of $545,000 (down 2.1% year over year).
Financials
At the end of 2023, cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $1.85 billion, up from $1.09 billion in 2022-end. Net debt-to-capital was 1.1% at 2023-end, significantly down from 9.6% at 2022-end.
Net cash provided by operating activities was $2.2 billion in 2023 versus $668.5 million in the prior year period.
In 2023, the company repurchased 13.8 million common shares for $1 billion at an average price of $72.50 per share. The company's board of directors has approved a $1.5 billion expansion of the company's share repurchase authorization, resulting in a total share repurchase authorization of $1.8 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates.
VGM Scores
At this time, PulteGroup has a nice Growth Score of B, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions has been net zero. Notably, PulteGroup has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Why Is PulteGroup (PHM) Up 1.8% Since Last Earnings Report?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for PulteGroup (PHM - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is PulteGroup due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
PulteGroup Q4 Earnings Beat, Revenues Lag, Orders Up
PulteGroup reported mixed results in fourth-quarter 2023, wherein earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimates, but revenues missed the same. Both metrics decreased year over year.
Nonetheless, during the latter part of the fourth quarter, PulteGroup observed a notable surge in buyer activity, mainly attributed to declining interest rates. December emerged as the quarter's peak sales month. With the anticipation of sustained lower interest rates in 2024, the company remains optimistic that the enhanced affordability landscape will continue to attract prospective buyers.
The year 2024 could witness heightened demand for homebuying, supported by a robust job market, lower interest rates, and a limited inventory of existing homes. PulteGroup, equipped with a readily available supply of homes and lots, is strategically positioned to leverage these market conditions for business expansion, ensuring robust cash flow and substantial returns.
Inside the Headlines
PHM reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.28, which beat the consensus mark of $3.20 by 2.5% but decreased 14.8% from $3.85 reported a year ago.
Total revenues of $4.29 billion missed the consensus mark of $4.48 billion by 4.2% and decreased 15.5% from the year-ago figure of $5.08 billion.
Segmental Discussion
PulteGroup primarily operates through two business segments — Homebuilding and Financial Services.
Revenues from the Homebuilding segment were down 16.1% year over year to $4.2 billion. Home sale revenues of $4.17 billion declined 16% year over year, mainly due to lower deliveries and average selling price of homes closed. Land sale revenues rose 24.1% from a year ago to $34.5 million.
The number of homes closed dropped 13.9% year over year to 7,615 units from the year-ago level. The average selling price of homes delivered was $547,000, down 2.5% year over year.
New home orders gained 57% year over year to 6,214 units for the quarter, benefiting from strong demand and a drop in cancelations. The value of new orders also rose 56% from a year ago to $3.4 billion. The cancelation rate was 9% of the beginning backlog, down 200 basis points from the prior-year period.
Most importantly, its backlog, which represents orders yet to be closed, was 12,146 units, down 0.2% year over year. In addition, potential housing revenues from the backlog decreased 4.6% from the prior-year quarter to $7.32 billion.
Home sales gross margin was down 50 bps year over year to 28.9% for the reported quarter. SG&A expenses (as a percentage of home sales revenues) grew 40 bps to 7.4% from a year ago.
Revenues from the Financial Services segment increased 30.2% year over year to $93.9 million. Pretax income for the segment increased 83.3% to $44 million from a year ago.
2023 Highlights
Earnings came in at $11.72 per share on revenues of $16.1 billion (up from $16 billion in 2022). During the year, the company delivered 28,603 homes (down 1.7% year over year) with an ASP of $545,000 (down 2.1% year over year).
Financials
At the end of 2023, cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $1.85 billion, up from $1.09 billion in 2022-end. Net debt-to-capital was 1.1% at 2023-end, significantly down from 9.6% at 2022-end.
Net cash provided by operating activities was $2.2 billion in 2023 versus $668.5 million in the prior year period.
In 2023, the company repurchased 13.8 million common shares for $1 billion at an average price of $72.50 per share. The company's board of directors has approved a $1.5 billion expansion of the company's share repurchase authorization, resulting in a total share repurchase authorization of $1.8 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates.
VGM Scores
At this time, PulteGroup has a nice Growth Score of B, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions has been net zero. Notably, PulteGroup has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.