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Coach (COH) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Coach, Inc. is expected to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2016 results on Aug 2. The question lingering in investors’ minds is, whether this designer and marketer of fine accessories and gifts and house of lifestyle brands, will be able to continue with its positive earnings surprise streak in the quarter to be reported. The company’s past performance reveals that it surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters by an average of 6%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Zacks Model Shows Unlikely Earnings Beat

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Coach is likely to beat earnings estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. Coach has an Earnings ESP of -2.50% as the Most Accurate estimate stands at 39 cents while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at 40 cents. Coach’s Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings surprise.

Factors Influencing this Quarter

Coach is undergoing a brand transformation and introducing modern luxury concept stores in key markets. The acquisition of Stuart Weitzman has been accretive to its performance, and is being viewed as a significant step in its efforts toward becoming a multi-brand company. Moreover, management has undertaken transformation initiatives revolving around product, stores and marketing. These factors are likely to have a favorable impact on the quarter to be reported.

However, Coach sells products that are discretionary in nature, and thus depends upon consumers’ disposable income, which is sensitive to macroeconomic factors. Fashion obsolescence also remains the main concern for the company’s business model, which involves a sustained focus on product and design innovation. Moreover, due to high exposure to international markets, the company remains prone to currency fluctuations. Management cautioned that foreign currency headwinds would hurt revenue growth by 225−250 basis points in fiscal 2016.

COACH INC Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

COACH INC Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise | COACH INC Quote

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Nordstrom Inc. (JWN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.82% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.15% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Macy's, Inc. (M - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +31.71% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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