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Factors Likely to Influence Sprouts Farmers' (SFM) Q1 Earnings

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Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM - Free Report) is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports first-quarter 2024 earnings on May 1 after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $1,839 million, which indicates an increase of 6.1% from the prior-year reported figure.

The bottom line of this grocery retailer is also expected to rise year over year. Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share has been stable at $1.00, which suggests an increase of 2% from the year-ago quarter. The company had guided adjusted earnings in the band of 98 cents-$1.02 per share for the quarter.

Sprouts Farmers has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Phoenix, AZ-based company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 8.9%.

Factors to Consider

Sprouts Farmers' focus on product innovation, technology and targeted marketing with everyday great pricing bodes well. It has been steadily expanding its presence in the natural organic space, given the huge demand in the segment. Management has been lowering operational complexity, optimizing production, improving the in-stock position and updating to smaller-format stores. Apart from these, the company has been trying to expand private-label offerings.

Cumulatively, the aforementioned factors are likely to have favorably impacted the top line. We expect comparable store sales growth of 2.7% for the quarter under review.

Sprouts Farmers has worked diligently to provide customers with a seamless shopping experience through its website, mobile app and a supply chain that prioritizes freshness. The introduction of grocery pickup services and home delivery options at all its stores represents a significant step toward meeting the growing demand for online shopping. Such initiatives have been helping Sprouts Farmers expand its customer base and revenues.

However, the company faces challenges in the SG&A domain. We anticipate SG&A expenses to increase 6.4% year over year in the first quarter. As a percentage of net sales, we expect the metric to deleverage 20 basis points to 28.3%. Consequently, we foresee a 30-basis point contraction in the operating margin.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Sprouts Farmers this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.

Sprouts Farmers currently has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, thus making the surprise prediction difficult. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

3 Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Ross Stores (ROST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.34% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings per share is pegged at $1.34, which suggests an increase of 22.9% year over year. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Ross Stores’ top line is expected to ascend year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.82 billion, which indicates an increase of 7.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. ROST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.1%, on average.

Ollie's Bargain (OLLI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.77% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 65 cents implies an increase of 32.7% from the year-ago reported number.

Ollie's Bargain’s top line is expected to ascend year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $503.8 million, which suggests an increase of 9.7% from the prior-year quarter. OLLI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.3%, on average.

Coty (COTY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.23% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to register top-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COTY’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.37 billion, which indicates an increase of 6.6% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COTY’s quarterly earnings has been stable at 6 cents in the past 30 days, which calls for a 68.4% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. COTY delivered an earnings beat of 115.3%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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