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NCI Building (NCS) Q3 Earnings: Can the Stock Surprise?

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NCI Building Systems Inc. is set to report its third quarter fiscal 2016 results on Aug30, 2016, after the market closes.

In the last reported quarter, NCI Building posted adjusted earnings of 4 cents per share, reversing its prior year quarter’s loss. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

On Jul 18, NCI Building scaled up its revenue guidance to a range of $458 million to $469 million for third-quarter fiscal 2016. It expects gross margin between 26.5% and 28% on the back of increased business activity. The company remains optimistic about its second half fiscal 2016 performance.

Though increasing steel costs will affect revenues in the to-be reported quarter, the company will benefit from its efforts to simplify the organizational structure. Share repurchase and a sturdy backlog are also likely to act as tailwinds.

Surprise History

NCI Building has beaten estimates on three occasions in the trailing four quarters. Overall, the company has posted an average positive surprise of 102.10%.

NCI BLDG SYSTEM Price and EPS Surprise

 

NCI BLDG SYSTEM Price and EPS Surprise | NCI BLDG SYSTEM Quote

What Our Model Indicates

Our proven model does not conclusively show that NCI Building is likely to beat estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is pegged at 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at 20 cents per share.

Zacks Rank: Though NCI Building has a Zacks Rank #2, an ESP of 0.00% makes surprise prediction difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks you may want to consider as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases:

Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (LPX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +20.69% and it carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +1.30% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Lennox International, Inc. (LII - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.02% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3.

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