We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. This includes personalizing content and advertising. To learn more, click here. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Service.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Getting Hit Hard from All Sides: Global Week Ahead
Read MoreHide Full Article
I think globally to start each week. Do you? Follow me on twitter @johnblank100
In this busy Global Week Ahead, Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement should produce the ‘big’ headline. But there will be serious competition arriving from other sources.
To mid-week, trader’s focus should be on any language in the FOMC statement -- and at Yellen’s press conference on Wednesday -- which telegraphs a 25 basis-point hike at the Dec. 14th meeting.
Markets price over 70% odds of a December hike (and under 20% odds of a NOV one this week). Bloomberg says 59 out of 76 forecasters expect the Fed to hike before yearend.
After the FOMC statement and Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference on Wednesday, traders then hear from Vice Chair Stanley Fischer. He speaks just after markets close on Friday. A huge number of lesser Fed speeches are also planned during the workday on Friday.
Second, a heavy line-up of macro data can be shortened to these big hitters--
Tuesday: U.S. ISM manufacturing hits. Expect an unchanged reading.
Friday: Federal nonfarm payrolls and the Labor Dept.’s household survey hits traders with the latest on U.S. job growth, the unemployment rate and wages.
Indeed, a large negative U.S. jobs surprise would cast doubt upon a December Fed hike. I assign that possibility very low odds --given strong +2.9% GDP growth out last week.
Third, don’t overlook U.S. earnings season. It enters its 2nd most active week. 132 firms on the S&P 500 are set to report, after 176 firms reported last week. Activity swiftly falls off, with 31, 20, 15, and 9 reports due on further-out weeks.
Key reports: Facebook, Loews, Pfizer, Time Warner, Starbucks, CBS, Molson Coors, Kellogg, Pitney Bowes, and Metlife.
Fourth and finally, I am utterly sure of this. No need to bookmark! The week is going to be a noisy and nasty political week heading into the November 8th U.S. Presidential election.
A widely-followed polling consensus website assigns 79% odds to a Clinton Presidency, even after the latest email snafu. The site’s forecast is for Clinton to win Florida’s 29
electoral college votes. However, Trump polled four points ahead of Clinton in the Florida popular vote, in one recent poll.
Florida is where the action is for polling data hounds and the 2 campaigns next week.
Top Zacks #1 Rank Stocks
Baxter International (BAX - Free Report) : This U.S. health care sector company is in the medical products industry. It has a large market cap at $25 billion. The Zacks VGM score is C. Baxter engages in the worldwide development, manufacture and distribution of a diversified line of products, systems and services used primarily in the health-care field.
ST Microelectronics (STM - Free Report) : This company fits into the general semiconductor industry. It has a market cap of $7.6 billion. The Zacks VGM score is A. It designs, develops, manufactures and markets a broad range of semiconductor integrated circuits and discrete devices used in a wide variety of microelectronic applications,
EQT Midstream Partners : This company is in the oil production/pipeline industry. It has a market capitalization of $6 billion. The Zacks VGM score is C. EQT Midstream Partners, LP is formed to own, operate, acquire and develop midstream assets in the Appalachian Basin. That a shale/fracking play see rising estimates again is big news.
Key Global/Macro Facts—
For traders, the first week of any month is usually solely focused on nonfarm US payrolls.
It is rare to see a FOMC meeting, a BoE meeting, and an RBA meeting on the same week as the US publishes its nonfarm payroll report. That will lead to a coming Friday with a number of Fed speakers and a data print for +180K on the payrolls.
This is due to the US Presidential election falling in the week after.
On Monday, the flash Eurozone HICP inflation measure, looks to be +0.6% y/y, with the core HICP rate at +0.80% y/y. Also, the Eurozone preliminary GDP growth rate could be +1.6% y/y.
The Chicago PMI should be 55, beating the prior of 54.2. That’s strong.
Brazil produces it net debt as a % of GDP, and its primary budget balance. At 43.5% of GDP, the net debt level in Brazil is low. That is one big positive down there.
On Tuesday, we get the India manufacturing PMI. Forecast is for 52.1
South Africa’s unemployment rate is 26.6%.
Canada’s GDP should come in at +0.2% m/m, below the prior +0.5% m/m data, but positive.
The U.K. CIPS/Markit manufacturing PMI is forecast to be 56.1, above the prior 55.4.
The U.S. ISM manufacturing index comes out. Look for no change at 51.5.
On Wednesday, US ADP private payrolls come out. Look for a strong 170K this month, after a 154K print last month.
The FOMC should leave rates at 50 basis points after the November meeting.
The BoJ publishes its quarterly outlook report.
The Eurozone manufacturing PMI should be 53.3. For countries, Germany’s manufacturing PMI should be 55.1, while France’s manufacturing PMI should be 51.3, and Italy’s manufacturing PMI is forecast at 51.0.
The German unemployment rate is 6.1%.
The Irish unemployment rate is 7.9%.
On Thursday, there is a BoE monetary policy meeting and rate decision in the UK. The base rate is at 25 basis points.
A 2-day IMF conference gets underway.
On Friday, the U.S. nonfarm payroll number should be 180K, better than the prior 156K. The U.S. unemployment rate should go to 4.9% from 5.0%.
The sovereign debt of the Eurozone will be rated by Moody’s.
The RBA in Australia will make a statement on monetary policy.
Eurozone services PMIs look solid at 53.5. The composite should be 53.7, including both services and manufacturing.
The Fed’s Brainard speaks in Chicago, the Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Orlando, the Fed’s Kaplan speaks in Mexico City, the ECB’s Constancio speaks in Chicago, and the Fed’s Kashkari speaks in Wisconsin.
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:
Image: Bigstock
Getting Hit Hard from All Sides: Global Week Ahead
I think globally to start each week. Do you? Follow me on twitter @johnblank100
In this busy Global Week Ahead, Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement should produce the ‘big’ headline. But there will be serious competition arriving from other sources.
To mid-week, trader’s focus should be on any language in the FOMC statement -- and at Yellen’s press conference on Wednesday -- which telegraphs a 25 basis-point hike at the Dec. 14th meeting.
Markets price over 70% odds of a December hike (and under 20% odds of a NOV one this week). Bloomberg says 59 out of 76 forecasters expect the Fed to hike before yearend.
After the FOMC statement and Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference on Wednesday, traders then hear from Vice Chair Stanley Fischer. He speaks just after markets close on Friday. A huge number of lesser Fed speeches are also planned during the workday on Friday.
Second, a heavy line-up of macro data can be shortened to these big hitters--
Indeed, a large negative U.S. jobs surprise would cast doubt upon a December Fed hike. I assign that possibility very low odds --given strong +2.9% GDP growth out last week.
Third, don’t overlook U.S. earnings season. It enters its 2nd most active week. 132 firms on the S&P 500 are set to report, after 176 firms reported last week. Activity swiftly falls off, with 31, 20, 15, and 9 reports due on further-out weeks.
Key reports: Facebook, Loews, Pfizer, Time Warner, Starbucks, CBS, Molson Coors, Kellogg, Pitney Bowes, and Metlife.
Fourth and finally, I am utterly sure of this. No need to bookmark! The week is going to be a noisy and nasty political week heading into the November 8th U.S. Presidential election.
A widely-followed polling consensus website assigns 79% odds to a Clinton Presidency, even after the latest email snafu. The site’s forecast is for Clinton to win Florida’s 29
electoral college votes. However, Trump polled four points ahead of Clinton in the Florida popular vote, in one recent poll.
Florida is where the action is for polling data hounds and the 2 campaigns next week.
Top Zacks #1 Rank Stocks
Baxter International (BAX - Free Report) : This U.S. health care sector company is in the medical products industry. It has a large market cap at $25 billion. The Zacks VGM score is C. Baxter engages in the worldwide development, manufacture and distribution of a diversified line of products, systems and services used primarily in the health-care field.
ST Microelectronics (STM - Free Report) : This company fits into the general semiconductor industry. It has a market cap of $7.6 billion. The Zacks VGM score is A. It designs, develops, manufactures and markets a broad range of semiconductor integrated circuits and discrete devices used in a wide variety of microelectronic applications,
EQT Midstream Partners : This company is in the oil production/pipeline industry. It has a market capitalization of $6 billion. The Zacks VGM score is C. EQT Midstream Partners, LP is formed to own, operate, acquire and develop midstream assets in the Appalachian Basin. That a shale/fracking play see rising estimates again is big news.
Key Global/Macro Facts—
For traders, the first week of any month is usually solely focused on nonfarm US payrolls.
It is rare to see a FOMC meeting, a BoE meeting, and an RBA meeting on the same week as the US publishes its nonfarm payroll report. That will lead to a coming Friday with a number of Fed speakers and a data print for +180K on the payrolls.
This is due to the US Presidential election falling in the week after.
On Monday, the flash Eurozone HICP inflation measure, looks to be +0.6% y/y, with the core HICP rate at +0.80% y/y. Also, the Eurozone preliminary GDP growth rate could be +1.6% y/y.
The Chicago PMI should be 55, beating the prior of 54.2. That’s strong.
Brazil produces it net debt as a % of GDP, and its primary budget balance. At 43.5% of GDP, the net debt level in Brazil is low. That is one big positive down there.
On Tuesday, we get the India manufacturing PMI. Forecast is for 52.1
South Africa’s unemployment rate is 26.6%.
Canada’s GDP should come in at +0.2% m/m, below the prior +0.5% m/m data, but positive.
The U.K. CIPS/Markit manufacturing PMI is forecast to be 56.1, above the prior 55.4.
The U.S. ISM manufacturing index comes out. Look for no change at 51.5.
On Wednesday, US ADP private payrolls come out. Look for a strong 170K this month, after a 154K print last month.
The FOMC should leave rates at 50 basis points after the November meeting.
The BoJ publishes its quarterly outlook report.
The Eurozone manufacturing PMI should be 53.3. For countries, Germany’s manufacturing PMI should be 55.1, while France’s manufacturing PMI should be 51.3, and Italy’s manufacturing PMI is forecast at 51.0.
The German unemployment rate is 6.1%.
The Irish unemployment rate is 7.9%.
On Thursday, there is a BoE monetary policy meeting and rate decision in the UK. The base rate is at 25 basis points.
A 2-day IMF conference gets underway.
On Friday, the U.S. nonfarm payroll number should be 180K, better than the prior 156K. The U.S. unemployment rate should go to 4.9% from 5.0%.
The sovereign debt of the Eurozone will be rated by Moody’s.
The RBA in Australia will make a statement on monetary policy.
Eurozone services PMIs look solid at 53.5. The composite should be 53.7, including both services and manufacturing.
The Fed’s Brainard speaks in Chicago, the Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Orlando, the Fed’s Kaplan speaks in Mexico City, the ECB’s Constancio speaks in Chicago, and the Fed’s Kashkari speaks in Wisconsin.