Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Is Graphic Packaging (GPK) a Great Stock for Value Investors?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Value investing is easily one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment. After all, who wouldn’t want to find stocks that are either flying under the radar and are compelling buys, or offer up tantalizing discounts when compared to fair value?

One way to find these companies is by looking at several key metrics and financial ratios, many of which are crucial in the value stock selection process. Let’s put Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK - Free Report) stock into this equation and find out if it is a good choice for value-oriented investors right now, or if investors subscribing to this methodology should look elsewhere for top picks:

PE Ratio

A key metric that value investors always look at is the Price to Earnings Ratio, or PE for short. This shows us how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings in a given stock, and is easily one of the most popular financial ratios in the world. The best use of the PE ratio is to compare the stock’s current PE ratio with: a) where this ratio has been in the past; b) how it compares to the average for the industry/sector; and c) how it compares to the market as a whole.

On this front, Graphic Packaging has a trailing twelve months PE ratio of 17.56, as you can see in the chart below:

This level actually compares pretty favorably with the market at large, as the PE for the S&P 500 compares in at about 20.34. If we focus on the stock’s long-term PE trend, the current level puts Graphic Packaging’s current PE ratio somewhat below its midpoint (which is 18.81) over the past five years.

Further, the stock’s PE also compares favorably with the Zacks classified Industrial Products sector’s trailing twelve months PE ratio, which stands at 22.42. At the very least, this indicates that the stock is relatively undervalued right now, compared to its peers.

We should also point out that Graphic Packaging has a forward PE ratio (price relative to this year’s earnings) of 17.19, so it is fair to say that a slightly more value-oriented path may be ahead for Graphic Packaging stock in the near term too.

P/S Ratio

Another key metric to note is the Price/Sales ratio. This approach compares a given stock’s price to its total sales, where a lower reading is generally considered better. Some people like this metric more than other value-focused ones because it looks at sales, something that is far harder to manipulate with accounting tricks than earnings.

Right now, Graphic Packaging has a P/S ratio of about 0.95. This is significantly lower than the S&P 500 average, which comes in at 3.08 right now. Also, as we can see in the chart below, this is somewhat below the highs for this stock in particular over the past few years.

If anything, this suggests some level of undervalued trading—at least compared to historical norms.

Broad Value Outlook

In aggregate, Graphic Packaging currently has a Zacks Value Style Score of ‘A’, putting it into the top 20% of all stocks we cover from this look. This makes GPK a solid choice for value investors, and some of its other key metrics make this pretty clear too.

For example, the PEG ratio for Graphic Packaging is just 0.80, a level that is considerably lower than the industry average of 2.20. The PEG ratio is a modified PE ratio that takes into account the stock’s earnings growth rate. Additionally, its P/CF ratio (another great indicator of value) comes in at 4.86, which is substantially better than the industry average of 9.81. Clearly, GPK is a solid choice on the value front from multiple angles.

What About the Stock Overall?

Though Graphic Packaging might be a good choice for value investors, there are plenty of other factors to consider before investing in this name. In particular, it is worth noting that the company has a Growth grade of ‘B’ and a Momentum score of ‘D’. This gives GPK a Zacks VGM score—or its overarching fundamental grade—of ‘A’. (You can read more about the Zacks Style Scores here >>)

Meanwhile, the company’s recent earnings estimates have been discouraging. The current quarter has seen two estimates go lower in the past thirty days, compared to none higher, while the full year estimate has seen two downward revisions and no upward revision in the same time period.

This has had a noticeable impact on the consensus estimate, as the current quarter consensus estimate has fallen by 7.1% in the past one month, while the full year estimate has decreased 3.9%. You can see the consensus estimate trend and recent price action for the stock in the chart below:

This bearish trend is why the stock has just a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and why we are looking for in-line performance from the company in the near term.

Bottom Line

Graphic Packaging is an inspired choice for value investors, as it is hard to beat its incredible lineup of statistics on this front. However, with a sluggish industry rank (bottom 37% out of more than 250 industries) and a Zacks Rank #3, it is hard to get too excited about this company overall. In fact, over the past one year, the Zacks Containers-Paper and Packaging sector has clearly underperformed the broader market, as you can see below:

So, value investors might want to wait for estimates, analyst sentiment and broader factors to turn favorable in this name first, but once that happen, this stock could be a compelling pick.

Zacks’ Best Private Investment Ideas

In addition to the recommendations that are available to the public on our website, how would you like to follow all Zacks' private buys and sells in real time?

Our experts cover all kinds of trades… from value to momentum . . . from stocks under $10 to ETF and option moves . . . from stocks that corporate insiders are buying up to companies that are about to report positive earnings surprises. You can even look inside exclusive portfolios that are normally closed to new investors. Starting today, for the next month, you can have unrestricted access. Click here for Zacks' private trades >>


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:


Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) - free report >>

Published in