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GGP Inc. (GGP) to Report Q1 Earnings: Will It Disappoint?

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Retail real estate investment trust (REIT), GGP Inc. , is slated to report first-quarter 2017 results on May 1, before the market opens.

In the last three months, shares of the company declined 8.8%. Its first-quarter funds from operations (FFO) per share estimate remained unchanged at 37 cents in the last 30 days.

In the last quarter, GGP Inc. reported in-line results. In fact, in the trailing four quarters, GGP surpassed estimates on one occasion and matched estimates on the other three. The average annual surprise was 3.57%. This is depicted in the chart below.

Will GGP be able to overcome challenges this time and post a surprise? Or will a challenging backdrop in the retail real estate market hurt its financials this season? Let’s see how things are shaping up prior to this announcement.

Factors to Consider

GGP Inc. enjoys a robust portfolio of high-quality retail properties across attractive locations in the U.S., with the presence of renowned tenants. Hence, amid an improving economy, the company is capable of generating decent cash flows.

However, in recent times, the retail real estate market has been crippled with issues like bankruptcies and downsizing of retailers. This is because mall traffic continues to decline amid rapid shift in customers’ shopping preferences and patterns, with online purchases growing at a rapid clip. These have emerged as serious concerns for retail REITs, as the trend is curtailing demand for the retail real estate space considerably.

Given this, GGP Inc. has been making efforts to counter such pressure through various initiatives. However, implementation of such measures requires significant upfront costs, which might limit near-term growth in profit margins.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that GGP Inc.  will beat on earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. However, that is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the percentage difference between the Most Accurate estimate of 36 cents and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 37 cents, is -2.70%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: GGP currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

We caution against stocks with Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Strong Sell) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is witnessing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a few stocks in the REIT sector that you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

EPR Properties (EPR - Free Report) , expected to release earnings on May 2, has an Earnings ESP of +0.84% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Store Capital Corp. , expected to release first-quarter results on May 4, has an Earnings ESP of +2.44% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. (HPP - Free Report) , expected to release first-quarter results on May 4, has an Earnings ESP of +2.08% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Note: All EPS numbers presented in this write up represent funds from operations (FFO) per share. FFO, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs, is obtained after adding depreciation and amortization and other non-cash expenses to net income.

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