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Why Is Texas Capital (TCBI) Up 1.5% Since the Last Earnings Report?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.5% in that time frame, outperforming the market.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Texas Capital Q1 Earnings Lag Estimates, Costs Rise
Texas Capital reported a negative earnings surprise of 9.1% in first-quarter 2017. Earnings per share of $0.80 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $0.08. However, the bottom line improved 63.3% from the prior-year quarter figure of $0.49 per share.
Revenues increased significantly based on growth in loan and deposit balances. However, elevated expenses remained a major undermining factor.
Net income available to common shareholders was $40.1 million, up 76.7% year over year.
Revenues Rise, Costs Escalate
Total revenue (net of interest expense) increased 15.6% year over year to $180.5 million in the quarter, driven by higher net interest income and non-interest income. However, revenues lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $193 million.
Texas Capital’s net interest income was $163.4 million, up 12.8% year over year. In addition, net interest margin expanded 16 basis points (bps) year over year to 3.29%. This was attributable to an increase in interest rates and high yields on total loans held for investment (LHI) and for sale (LHS).
Texas Capital’s non-interest income surged 51.5% year over year to $17.1 million. The rise was primarily attributable to an increase in service charges, wealth management and trust fee income, servicing income, brokered loan fees and swap fees.
However, non-interest expenses increased 22.2% year over year to $106.1 million. This was mainly due to a rise in almost all categories of expenses.
As of Mar 31, 2017, total loans rose 2% year over year to $17.6 billion. Deposits also climbed 2% year over year to $16.6 billion.
Credit Quality Improves
Non-performing assets totaled 0.99% of the loan portfolio plus other real estate owned assets, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 13 bps. Non-performing assets totaled $165.4 million, down 13.3% year over year. Provisions for credit losses totaled $9 million, down 70% year over year.
The company’s net charge-offs decreased significantly on a year-over-year basis to $5.7 million from $7.4 million in the prior-year quarter. Non-accrual loans were $146.5 million or 0.88% of total loans compared with $173.2 million or 1.02% in the year-ago quarter.
Strong Capital and Profitability Ratios
As of Mar 31, 2017, return on average equity was 8.6% and return on average assets was 0.83% compared with 6.13% and 0.53%, respectively, in the year-ago quarter. Tangible common equity to total tangible assets was 9% compared with 7.3% in the prior-year quarter.
Stockholders’ equity was up 24.5% year over year to roughly $2.1 billion as of Mar 31, 2017. The uptrend was backed by retention of net income and proceeds from common stock offering during fourth-quarter 2016.
Outlook
Management expects the contribution of MCA business to total mortgage loans to increase further in 2017. MCA is expected to be profitable for 2017, with average balances in excess of $1.2 billion for the year.
Texas Capital expects high single to low double-digit percent growth in average loans held-for-investment (LHI) in 2017 compared to 2016. The average mortgage finance loans are anticipated to be $3.2–$3.5 billion in the remaining quarters of 2017.
Management expects growth in average deposits in low teens with continued improvement in the Demand Deposits Account (DDA) composition. Also, average balances for liquidity assets are expected to grow more modestly.
Management expects net revenue in low to mid-teens percent growth.
Net interest margin (NIM) is expected within 3.25–3.35% in 2017. NIM, excluding the effect of liquidity assets is anticipated to be 3.80–3.90% for 2017, assuming no further changes in the interest rates.
Regarding expenses, non-interest expenses are expected to grow at low-teens percent and provision expenses are projected to be around low-$50 to mid-$60 million in 2017.
Efficiency ratio is projected in the mid 50’s range in 2017.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Following the release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. There have been eight revisions lower for the current quarter. In the past month, the consensus estimate has shifted downward by 8.3% due to these changes.
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. Price and Consensus
At this time, Texas Capital's stock has a poor score of 'F' on both growth and momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of 'D' on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'F'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Our style scores indicate investors will probably be better served looking elsewhere.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock. The magnitude of this revision also indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, the stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We are expecting an inline return from the stock in the next few months.
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Why Is Texas Capital (TCBI) Up 1.5% Since the Last Earnings Report?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.5% in that time frame, outperforming the market.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Texas Capital Q1 Earnings Lag Estimates, Costs Rise
Texas Capital reported a negative earnings surprise of 9.1% in first-quarter 2017. Earnings per share of $0.80 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $0.08. However, the bottom line improved 63.3% from the prior-year quarter figure of $0.49 per share.
Revenues increased significantly based on growth in loan and deposit balances. However, elevated expenses remained a major undermining factor.
Net income available to common shareholders was $40.1 million, up 76.7% year over year.
Revenues Rise, Costs Escalate
Total revenue (net of interest expense) increased 15.6% year over year to $180.5 million in the quarter, driven by higher net interest income and non-interest income. However, revenues lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $193 million.
Texas Capital’s net interest income was $163.4 million, up 12.8% year over year. In addition, net interest margin expanded 16 basis points (bps) year over year to 3.29%. This was attributable to an increase in interest rates and high yields on total loans held for investment (LHI) and for sale (LHS).
Texas Capital’s non-interest income surged 51.5% year over year to $17.1 million. The rise was primarily attributable to an increase in service charges, wealth management and trust fee income, servicing income, brokered loan fees and swap fees.
However, non-interest expenses increased 22.2% year over year to $106.1 million. This was mainly due to a rise in almost all categories of expenses.
As of Mar 31, 2017, total loans rose 2% year over year to $17.6 billion. Deposits also climbed 2% year over year to $16.6 billion.
Credit Quality Improves
Non-performing assets totaled 0.99% of the loan portfolio plus other real estate owned assets, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 13 bps. Non-performing assets totaled $165.4 million, down 13.3% year over year. Provisions for credit losses totaled $9 million, down 70% year over year.
The company’s net charge-offs decreased significantly on a year-over-year basis to $5.7 million from $7.4 million in the prior-year quarter. Non-accrual loans were $146.5 million or 0.88% of total loans compared with $173.2 million or 1.02% in the year-ago quarter.
Strong Capital and Profitability Ratios
As of Mar 31, 2017, return on average equity was 8.6% and return on average assets was 0.83% compared with 6.13% and 0.53%, respectively, in the year-ago quarter. Tangible common equity to total tangible assets was 9% compared with 7.3% in the prior-year quarter.
Stockholders’ equity was up 24.5% year over year to roughly $2.1 billion as of Mar 31, 2017. The uptrend was backed by retention of net income and proceeds from common stock offering during fourth-quarter 2016.
Outlook
Management expects the contribution of MCA business to total mortgage loans to increase further in 2017. MCA is expected to be profitable for 2017, with average balances in excess of $1.2 billion for the year.
Texas Capital expects high single to low double-digit percent growth in average loans held-for-investment (LHI) in 2017 compared to 2016. The average mortgage finance loans are anticipated to be $3.2–$3.5 billion in the remaining quarters of 2017.
Management expects growth in average deposits in low teens with continued improvement in the Demand Deposits Account (DDA) composition. Also, average balances for liquidity assets are expected to grow more modestly.
Management expects net revenue in low to mid-teens percent growth.
Net interest margin (NIM) is expected within 3.25–3.35% in 2017. NIM, excluding the effect of liquidity assets is anticipated to be 3.80–3.90% for 2017, assuming no further changes in the interest rates.
Regarding expenses, non-interest expenses are expected to grow at low-teens percent and provision expenses are projected to be around low-$50 to mid-$60 million in 2017.
Efficiency ratio is projected in the mid 50’s range in 2017.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Following the release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. There have been eight revisions lower for the current quarter. In the past month, the consensus estimate has shifted downward by 8.3% due to these changes.
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. Price and Consensus
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. Price and Consensus | Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. Quote
VGM Scores
At this time, Texas Capital's stock has a poor score of 'F' on both growth and momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of 'D' on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'F'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Our style scores indicate investors will probably be better served looking elsewhere.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock. The magnitude of this revision also indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, the stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We are expecting an inline return from the stock in the next few months.