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Goldcorp (GG) Down 1.8% Since Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Goldcorp Inc. . Shares have lost about 1.8% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Goldcorp’s Q1 Earnings Beat, Revenues Miss Estimates

Goldcorp reported net earnings of $170 million or $0.20 per share for first-quarter 2017, compared with net earnings of $80 million or $0.10 per share a year ago. Earnings per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.09.

Goldcorp recorded revenues of $882 million in the reported quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $930 million.

Gold sales slumped around 19.1% year over year to 646,000 ounces in the reported quarter and production tumbled 16.4% to 655,000 ounces.

AISC were $800 per gold ounce (down 4.3% year over year). The decrease in AISC was attributable to Goldcorp’s focus on cost reduction with lower sustaining capital and corporate administration costs, increased realized prices of by-products at Penasquito, partly offset by lower sales volumes.

Mining Highlights

At the Penasquito mine, gold production was 138,000 ounces, marking an increase of 13.1% year over year. AISC was $391 per ounce compared with $1,004 in the year-ago quarter.

At the Cerro Negro in Argentina, gold production was 88,000 ounces, marking a decrease of 31.2% year over year. AISC was $651 per ounce compared with $503 in the year-ago quarter.

At the Pueblo Viejo mine, gold production was 95,000 ounces, marking a decrease of 15.2% year over year. AISC was $541 per ounce compared with $443 in the year-ago quarter.

Financial Position

As of Mar 31, 2017, Goldcorp had total liquidity of $3.1 billion, including $0.2 billion in short-term investments and cash and cash equivalents and $2.9 billion credit facility. The company reported adjusted operating cash flows of $269 million for the first quarter, of which $15 million was used to pay dividends, $74 million was used to fund growth pipeline and $65 million was used to repurchase gold stream on NuevaUnion project.

Outlook

Goldcorp continues to expect gold production to be 2.5 million ounces (+/- 5%) at an AISC of around $850 per ounce in 2017. According to President and CEO David Garofalo, the company remains focused on execution, cost reduction and optimization of asset portfolio. Goldcorp continues to improve the strongest growth pipeline. It has a planned joint venture in the Maricunga District in Chile, to produce 60 million ounces of gold, which will be financed by the sale of non-core assets. The deal is in line with the strategy of growing net asset value per share by delivering 3–4 million ounces of sustainable gold production from 6–8 core camps annually.
 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates flatlined during the past month. There have been two revisions higher for the current quarter compared to two lower.

Goldcorp Inc. Price and Consensus

 

VGM Scores

At this time, the stock has an average Growth Score of 'C', Momentum is lagging a bit with a "F'. The stock was allocated a grade of 'D' on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'D'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Based on our scores, the stock is solely suitable for growth investors.

Outlook

The stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We are expecting an inline return from the stock in the next few months.

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