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Orexigen (OREX) Down 9.4% Since Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. . Shares have lost about 9.4% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Orexigen Q1 Loss Wider Than Expected, Sales Up Y/Y

Orexigen Therapeutics’ loss of $4.67 per share in the first quarter of 2017 was significantly wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $2.60 and the year-ago loss of $1.54.

Quarterly revenues of approximately $19.1 million were significantly higher than $5 million in the year-ago quarter. The top-line improvement was primarily attributed to growth in net revenue per unit of Contrave sold in the U.S. and Contrave shipments to partners for supporting launches outside the U.S.

Quarterly Detail

In the first quarter, Orexigen reported U.S. net sales of Contrave of $14.8 million. Product sales to global partners amounted to $4.3 million.

IMS Health's prescription data recorded 195,920 total prescriptions for Contrave filled in this quarter compared with 192,005 in the year-ago period.

While R&D expenses decreased 30.7% from the year-ago period to $8.2 million, general and administrative (G&A) expenses were $55.2 million, up 233.8% from the year-ago period. The increase in G&A was primarily due to costs associated with commercializing Contrave in the U.S. This is because Orexigen terminated its collaboration agreement with Takeda for Contrave in Mar 2016 and started selling the drug itself.

In Mar 2017, Orexigen entered into a commercialization and distributorship agreement with Italian pharmaceutical company, Bruno Farmaceutici, for Mysimba (tradename for Contrave in Europe). Notably, this is the company’s fourth partnership in Europe.

Also, in this quarter, Mysimba was launched in Spain by Orexigen’s partner, Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi, S.A.

Subsequent to the quarter, in Apr 2017, the company successfully submitted a new drug submission seeking marketing approval for Contrave in Canada. Also, in May, a commercialization and distributorship agreement was signed with Norwegian medtech and pharmaceutical products company, Navamedic ASA, for selling Mysimba in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. Notably, this is the company’s fifth partnership in Europe.

2017 Business Priorities

The company is focused on driving Contrave sales in the U.S. by utilizing innovative patient-centric marketing tactics and growing global availability by building established partnerships with regional partners outside the U.S.

The company expects to file investigational new drug (IND) application for its two pipeline candidates in pain management and medication-assisted therapy for drug addiction.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Analysts were quiet during the last one month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

VGM Scores

At this time, Orexigen's stock has a poor Growth Score of 'F', while it is doing a bit better on the momentum front with 'C'. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated also a grade of 'F' on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'F'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Zacks' style scores indicate that the company's stock is suitable solely for momentum investors.

Outlook

The stock has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We are expecting a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

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