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Can Torchmark (TMK) Deliver a Beat this Earnings Season?

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Torchmark Corporation is set to report third-quarter 2017 results on Oct 24, after the market closes.

Higher number of agent counts will likely drive improvement in net sale at American Income Exclusive Agency, which was the largest contributor to life premium and net sales plus Torchmark’s most important distribution channel. Global Life’s results will benefit from its operation in less competitive market.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Life premiums is pegged at $573 million, while that for Health premiums, is pegged at $239 million, up 5% and 0.8% year over year, respectively. Total premiums are thus estimated to increase 3.7% to $812 million.

Torchmark expects excess investment income to grow about 75% and between 9% and 10% on a per share basis in the second half of 2017. The Zacks Consensus estimate is currently pegged at $215 million, improving nearly 6% year over year.

Continued share repurchase will likely boost the bottom line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings per share is pegged at $1.20, up 4.2% year over year.

Higher administrative expenses will likely weigh on insurance underwriting income in the quarter to be reported.

With respect to the surprise trend, the company delivered positive surprises in all the trailing four quarters with an average beat of 2.21%.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

Our proven model shows that Torchmark is likely to beat on earnings because it has the right combination of the following two important ingredients:

Zacks ESP: Torchmark has an Earnings ESP of +0.14%. A positive ESP indicates a likely positive surprise. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Torchmark Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

 

 

Zacks Rank: Torchmark currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Notably, stocks with a favorable Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 has significantly higher chances of beating estimates.

Conversely, Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing the negative estimate revisions.

Other Stocks to Consider

Some other stocks worth considering from the insurance industry with the right combination of elements to come up with an earnings beat in their respective quarters are as follows:

American Equity Investment Life Holding Company is set to report third-quarter earnings on Nov 6 with an Earnings ESP of +0.40% and a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Lincoln National Corporation (LNC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.05% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is set to report second-quarter earnings on Nov 1.

Voya Financial, Inc. (VOYA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.67% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is slated to report second-quarter earnings on Oct 31.

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