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An Early Preview of United's (UAL) Earnings Outlook

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United (UAL - Free Report) saw its stock price sink nearly 4% on Monday. However, the airline giant’s decline coincided with a nearly market-wide downturn, which is better than a fundamental-related dip as we inch closer toward the release of United’s first quarter 2018 financial results.

Before today’s drop, shares of United had been up nearly 3% in the last four weeks. Yet, over the last year, shares of United are down more than 6% as it fails to impress investors.

United also faces increased competition domestically and internationally. On top of that, the market’s recent bearish turn has many investors searching for stability. This means that investors might be on the lookout for stocks that boast strong outlooks ahead of Q1 earnings season.

With that said, let’s take a closer look at some of United’s current estimates to understand if investors should consider buying the stock ahead of its upcoming Q1 earnings report.

Latest Outlook and Valuation

United has earned seven earnings estimate revisions, with 100% agreement to the upside, all within the last 30 days. These revisions raised United’s consensus earnings estimate by 18 cents. Despite this more positive outlook, our current Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for United’s Q1 earnings to sink by 30% from the year-ago period to hit $0.28 per share.

Investors should be pleased to note that United’s revenues are expected to climb by 6.6% to reach $8.97 billion.

Heading into its soon-to-be-reported quarter, UAL is trading with a Forward P/E of 8.5. This marks a substantial discount compared to the “Transportation – Airline” industry, which is currently trading at an average of 10.6x forward earnings.   

Latest Results

The company has already reported some of its passenger metrics for the first two months of the first quarter. United’s January revenue passenger miles rose 1.8%, while its available seat miles jumped 3.3%.

United’s recently reported February results looked better on a year-over-year basis, as revenue passenger miles jumped 5.7% and available seat miles climbed 3.8%.

Price Performance and Surprise History

Another important thing to consider ahead of United’s Q1 report is the company’s history of earnings surprises and the effect that these surprises have had on share prices.

We can see that United boasts a strong earnings surprise history over the last few years, yet a strong bottom-line result has not always led to immediate positive momentum for the stock.

Bottom Line

Past performance is not always an indicator of future success, but we know that United has posted solid bottom-line beats for some time now. Investors should also note that these earnings beats have done little to help United’s stock price, especially over the last year.

On the positive side, some United analysts have upped their earnings estimates over the last month, and the stock is currently a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

United is expected to report its first quarter financial results on Monday, April 16.

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