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What to Expect From M&T Bank (MTB) This Earnings Season?

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M&T Bank Corporation (MTB - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2018 results on Jul 18, before the opening bell. The company’s revenues and earnings are expected to improve from the year-ago quarter.

M&T Bank’s first-quarter 2018 results showed top-line improvement supported by rising margins and higher other income. Further, lower provisions for credit losses were reported. The company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate backed by these factors. However, rise in expenses was a negative.

The bank’s earnings surprise history seems decent as it has delivered positive earnings surprises in three of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 4%.

M&T Bank Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Moreover, activities of M&T Bank during the quarter were adequate to win analysts’ confidence. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter has been revised slightly upward over the last seven days. Notably, the consensus estimate of $3.17 indicates an increase of 33.2% in the bank’s earnings from the prior-year quarter.

Overall, the Zacks Consensus Estimate projects year-over-year revenue growth of 4.6% to $1.46 billion for the to-be-reported quarter.

Factors to Influence Q2 Results

Net Interest Income (NII) to Improve: The quarter witnessed a moderate improvement in the lending scenario primarily in commercial and consumer front. Thus, loan growth combined with a rise in interest rates are likely to boost M&T Bank’s NII.

Muted Fee Income Growth: Since performance of the equity markets was not very impressive during the second quarter, M&T Bank is unlikely to have received much support from related fees.

Also, with the rising interest rate environment, no major help is expected from the mortgage banking segment. As refinancing activities slowed down during the quarter, mortgage banking revenues are not expected to witness much improvement.

Expenses to Trend Higher: Expenses are expected to trend higher in the upcoming release due to the company’s continued investments in several areas including operational infrastructure and technology.

Finally, let’s have a look at what our quantitative model predicts:

According to our quantitative model, chances of M&T Bank beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the second quarter are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — to increase the odds of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for M&T Bank is -0.14%.

Zacks Rank: M&T Bank currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). While this increases the predictive power of ESP, we also need a positive ESP to be confident of an earnings beat.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few finance stocks that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter, according to our model.

Comerica Incorporated (CMA - Free Report) is scheduled to release results on Jul 17. It has an Earnings ESP of +1.80% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR - Free Report) is slated to release results on Jul 26. It has an Earnings ESP of +0.56% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Blackstone Group L.P. (BX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.70% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is also slated to release results on Jul 19.

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