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Magellan Health (MGLN) Down 3.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Magellan Health . Shares have lost about 3.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Magellan Health due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Magellan Health Q4 earnings Miss Estimates

Magellan Health reported an operating loss of 77 cents per share missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.42 per share. Notably, the figure compares unfavorably with year-ago quarter’s earnings of $2.55 per share.

Revenues of $1.84 billion were up 8.9% year over year, driven by the full year impact of the acquisition of Senior Whole Health and net business growth. However, it missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.89 billion.

Segment profit of $16 million plummeted 84% year over year, as it was negatively impacted by $50 million of period and non-recurring items.

Total cost and expense of $1.64 declined 12.2% year over year, due to lower cost of care, cost of goods sold, direct service cost, depreciation and interest cost.

Capital Position

Cash flow from operations for the year ended Dec 31, 2018 was $164.8 million compared with $162.3 million for the prior year.

As of Dec 31, 2018 the company's unrestricted cash and investments totaled $130.4 million, which represents a decline of $130.8 million from the balance at Dec 31, 2017, primarily owing to the pay down of debt in share repurchases.

Guidance

For 2019, the company expects earnings per share and revenues in the range of $3.70 and 4.69, and $7.2 and 7.5 billion, respectively
 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Fresh estimates followed a downward path over the past two months. The consensus estimate has shifted -28.36% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Magellan Health has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Magellan Health has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

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