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Why Is AAR (AIR) Down 1.4% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for AAR (AIR - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is AAR due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

AAR Corp Q1 Earnings Top Estimates on Higher Y/Y Sales

AAR Corp. reported first-quarter fiscal 2020 adjusted earnings of 57 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 52 cents by 9.6%. The figure reflected a year-over-year improvement of 5.6% from 54 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

The year-over-year growth can be primarily attributed to solid improvement in sales.

Excluding one-time items, the company reported earnings of 49 cents from continuing operations compared with 54 cents in first-quarter fiscal 2019.

Total Sales

In the reported quarter, net sales of $541.5 million exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $498 million by 8.7%. The top line also increased 16.1% from $466.3 million in the year-ago quarter.

The year-over-year increase in sales was driven by continued growth in the company’s programs and parts supply activities.

Segment Details    

In the fiscal first quarter, revenues from the Aviation Services segment summed $511.8 million, up 16.7% year over year, driven by improved performance in Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO), acquisition of new government contract awards and continued strong demand for both new and aftermarket parts.

Expeditionary Services generated revenues of $29.7 million, up 6.5% from $27.9 million in the year-ago quarter, led by an increase in volumes from recent contract awards.

Highlights of the Release

AAR Corp’s cost of sales in the reported quarter grew 16.4% year over year to $459.9 million.

Selling, general and administrative expenses rose 20.5% to $58.1 million.

The company incurred interest expenses of $2.1 million compared with $1.6 million in first-quarter fiscal 2019.

Financial Condition

As of Aug 31, 2019, AAR Corp’s cash and cash equivalents amounted to $39.9 million compared with $21.3 million as of May 31, 2019.

As of Aug 31, net property, plant and equipment were worth $132.7 million compared with $132.8 million as of May 31.

As of Aug 31, long-term debt increased to $202.2 million from $141.7 million as of May 31.

Outlook

AAR Corp reaffirmed its financial guidance for fiscal 2020, which includes sales of $2.1-$2.2 billion and adjusted diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of $2.45-$2.65. The company expects selling, general and administrative expenses to be approximately 10.5% of sales and anticipates an effective tax rate of 24% for the fiscal.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

Currently, AAR has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, AAR has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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