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Real Time Insight


The ADP National Employment Report came out this morning. 

It showed private sector employment increased by +215,000 jobs from November to December.  ADP revised their November 2012 report, which reported job gains of +118,000, upward by +30,000 to +148,000 jobs. 

Note this monthly ADP jobs number is built to forecast the government’s final nonfarm payroll number, after revisions -- not the preliminary number coming out on Friday of this week.

A monthly job adds number above +200,000 is very welcome news. It has been ten months since the U.S. economy last broke that barrier.  U.S. employers are clearly teeing up hiring at the front end of the year.

Most encouraging?

  • A revival in construction jobs, although ADP says rebuilding after Superstorm Sandy likely lifted this December construction jobs gain. This is the seventh month in a row for positive adds to construction.  The +39,000 job adds in construction is the best number since February 2006. 
  • Financial Activities were up +14,000, a 16th month straight positive run.  It was also the best Financial Activities job add number since March 2006. 

This pair of sectors usually moves together:  One finances projects; the other builds them.  That is the positive feedback loop that takes the overall macro economy up in a cyclical fashion.

It was also interesting to see employers above 1000+ employees added +61,000 jobs, the most of any business size in December.  Big companies adding the most jobs are a good sign for the global economy.  Multi-nationals tend to be the big companies. 

It is also good news for the profits and earnings of large cap stocks.

What was your take on these numbers?



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