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LHC (LHCG) Up 30.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for LHC Group . Shares have added about 30.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is LHC due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

LHC Group  Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates in Q1

LHC Group Holdings first-quarter 2020 adjusted earnings per share of 75 cents beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 69 cents by 8.7%. However, the bottom line fell 23.5% year over year.

Revenues in Detail

The company reported net service revenues of $512.9 million in the quarter, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.2%. Also, the top line improved 2% on a year-over-year basis.

Q1 Highlights

In the quarter under review, total organic growth in home health admissions was 7.1% year over year, while organic growth in hospice admissions advanced 0.2%. Home health service revenues came in at $367.8 million, up 1.3% year over year, whereas hospice services totaled $60.5 million, up 17%.

On Jan 1, 2020, LHC Group completed the acquisition of eight home health and hospice providers in three states, all of which were hospital joint ventures. These acquisitions account for almost $23.8 million in annualized revenues.

Margin

Gross profit in the quarter totaled $191.7 million, up 5.5%. Gross margin in the reported quarter was 37.4%, up 124 basis points (bps).

Adjusted operating profit came in at $33.8 million, down 7.1%. Operating margin was 6.6%, down 65 bps.

2020 Guidance

Due to the uncertainty regarding the impact and disruption caused by COVID-19, the company has withdrawn its 2020 guidance.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -14.83% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, LHC has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, LHC has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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