UGI (UGI) Up 19.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

UGI OGS

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for UGI (UGI - Free Report) . Shares have added about 19.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UGI due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

UGI Earnings Beat Estimates and Revenues Rise Y/Y in Q2

UGI Corporation posted second-quarter fiscal 2022 operating earnings per share (EPS) of $1.91, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.88 by 1.6%. However, the bottom line decreased by 4% from the year-ago earnings of $1.99 per share.

Total Revenues

Revenues of $3,466 million for the fiscal second quarter of 2022 improved by 34.3% from the year-ago quarter’s figure of $2,581 million.

Segmental Results

AmeriGas Propane: Revenues of $1,048 million for the fiscal second quarter of 2022 were up 11.5% from the year-ago quarter’s $940 million.

UGI International: Revenues totalled $1,224 million, up 46.8% from the year-ago quarter’s $834 million.

Midstream & Marketing: Revenues of $671 million for the reported quarter increased 38.6% from the year-ago quarter’s $484 million.

UGI Utilities: Revenues of $707 million were up 60% from the year-ago quarter’s $442 million.

Corporate & Other: This segment incurred a loss of $184 million, wider than the loss of $119 million reported in the comparable quarter of last year.

Highlights of the Release

UGI’s Natural gas businesses delivered strong resultsdue to incremental earnings from Mountaineer and higher base rates at UGI Utilities.

As of Mar 31, 2022, UGI reported a strong balance sheet, with available liquidity of approximately $1.9 billion

Total interest expenses of $82 million were up 5.1% from the year-ago quarter’s $78 million.

Guidance

UGI updated its fiscal 2022 earnings guidance in the range of $2.90-$3.00 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2022 earnings of $2.65 per share is lower than $2.95, the midpoint of the guided range. UGI targets long-term EPS growth in the range of 6-10%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -44.44% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, UGI has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, UGI has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

UGI is part of the Zacks Utility - Gas Distribution industry. Over the past month, ONE Gas (OGS - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 2.3%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2022 more than a month ago.

ONE Gas reported revenues of $971.46 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +55.4%. EPS of $1.83 for the same period compares with $1.79 a year ago.

ONE Gas is expected to post earnings of $0.62 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +10.7%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -3.7%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for ONE Gas. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of F.

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