Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Up 8.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

VLO MPC

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) . Shares have added about 8.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Marathon Petroleum due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Marathon Petroleum Posts Better-Than-Expected Q2 Earnings

Independent oil refiner and marketer Marathon Petroleum reported adjusted earnings per share of $10.61, which comfortably beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.17 and compared with a profit of merely 67 cents per share in the year-ago period.

The company’s bottom line was favorably impacted by the stronger-than-expected performance of its Refining & Marketing segment, whose operating income totaled $7.1 billion, ahead of its Zacks Consensus Estimate by 108.4%.

Marathon Petroleum reported revenues of $54.2 billion, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $33.3 billion and improved 81.8% year over year.

The company repurchased shares worth $4.1 billion during the May-July period and has now completed more than 80% of its target to buy back $15 billion in common stock. This was after Marathon Petroleum concluded the sale of its Speedway business, comprising approximately 3,900 c-stores in 35 states to Japan-based retail group Seven &i Holdings — the owner of the 7-Eleven convenience store chain — for $21 billion.

With the existing capital return program coming to a close, the MPC board authorized a new $5 billion repurchase scheme with no expiration date.

Inside MPC’s Segments

Refining & Marketing: The Refining & Marketing segment reported an operating income of $7.1 billion, which soared from the year-ago profit of just $224 million. The jump primarily reflects higher year-over-year margins and throughputs.

Specifically, refining margin of $37.54 per barrel improved significantly from $12.45 a year ago. Total refined product sales volumes were 3,615 thousand barrels per day (mbpd), up from 3,489 mbpd in the year-ago quarter. Throughput rose from 2,854 mbpd in the year-ago quarter to 3,069 mbpd and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 2,535 mbpd. Capacity utilization during the quarter was up from last year’s 94% to 100%.

Midstream: This unit mainly reflects Marathon Petroleum’s general partner and majority limited partner interests in MPLX LP — a publicly traded master limited partnership that owns, operates, develops and acquires pipelines and other midstream assets.

Segment profitability was $1.1 billion, 15.3% higher than the second quarter of 2021. Earnings were supported by stable, fee-based revenues from MPLX’s wide range of midstream energy services.

Costs, Capex & Balance Sheet

Marathon Petroleum reported expenses of $45.9 billion in second-quarter 2022, rising 59.1% from the year-ago quarter.

In the reported quarter, Marathon Petroleum spent $577 million on capital programs (55% on Refining & Marketing and 38% on the Midstream segment) compared to $467 million in the year-ago period. As of Jun 30, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $9.1 billion and total debt, including that of MPLX, of $26.8 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -13.95% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Marathon Petroleum has a great Growth Score of A, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It comes with little surprise Marathon Petroleum has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Marathon Petroleum is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry. Over the past month, Valero Energy (VLO - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 8.6%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended June 2022 more than a month ago.

Valero Energy reported revenues of $51.64 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +86.1%. EPS of $11.36 for the same period compares with $0.48 a year ago.

Valero Energy is expected to post earnings of $8.04 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +559%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for Valero Energy. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.

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