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For most folks, earnings season means the 4 to 6 week period at the end of each calendar quarter when announcements of quarterly earnings releases dominate market headlines. For folks like us, however, who have to monitor and record each and every earnings release, the definition and duration of each earnings season isn’t that simple. Take for example, the 161 companies coming out with quarterly results this week, including 4 S&P 500 members.
Since we are still a couple of weeks away from the end of the March quarter, most folks would assume that all of these reports represent the tail of the 2016 Q4 earnings season. But that’s not correct; not all of this week’s earnings releases fall in the Q4 bucket. In fact, a number of this week’s earnings releases form part of the Q1 earnings season. For example, the Oracle (ORCL - Free Report) report after the market’s close on Wednesday is for that company’s fiscal quarter that ended in February, which will form part of our Q1 earnings tally. The Adobe (ADBE - Free Report) report after the close on Thursday similarly becomes part of the Q1 bucket.
That said, most of this week’s 161 earnings releases do represent the tail of the Q4 reporting cycle. The chart below of weekly reporting calendar for the S&P 500 index clearly shows that we still have another four weeks to go before the Q1 earnings season really takes off.
Expectations for Q1
Total Q1 earnings are expected to be up +6.6% from the same period last year on +6.5% higher revenues. This would follow +7.4% earnings growth in 2016 Q4 on +3.7% revenue growth, the highest growth pace in all most two years.
Estimates for Q1 came down as the quarter unfolded, with the current +6.6% growth down from +10.4% at the end of December. The chart below shows how Q1 earnings growth expectations have evolved over the last three months.
Please note that while Q1 estimates have followed well traversed path that we have been seeing consistently over the last few years, the magnitude of negative revisions compares favorably to other periods. In other words, Q1 estimates have come down, but they haven’t come down by as much.
The table below shows the summary picture for Q1, contrasted with what was actually achieved in Q4 (please note that we have officially closed the books on Q4 yet, as 4 index members still have to report quarterly results).
Recap of the Q4 Earnings Season
We now have Q4 results from 495 S&P 500 members, or 99% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these 495 index members are up +7.5% on +4.8% higher revenues, with 68.5% beating EPS estimates and 54.5% coming ahead of top-line expectations. For the quarter as a whole (combining estimates for the still-to-come 4 index members with what has come out already), total Q4 earnings are on track to be up +7.4% from the same period last year on +3.7% higher revenues.
Any way you look at it, the Q4 earnings season turned out to be a good one. Not only has growth turned out to be the highest in two years, but total earnings for the quarter also reached a new quarterly record. Please recall that earnings growth turned positive only in 2016 Q3, having declined in each of the preceding 5 quarters, as the chart below of year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 index shows.
Importantly, the positive Q4 growth wasn’t a result of easy comparisons, but actually a function of strong gains in earnings. In fact, the overall tally of Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 index is on track to reach an all-time record for the index, surpassing the previous record achieved in 2014 Q4. The chart below shows the quarterly earnings totals for index, contrasting the highlighted Q4 tally with actual results from the last 8 quarters and expected tallies in the coming 4 quarters.
As you can see, this record isn’t expected to last very long, with growth expected to ramp up notably in the coming quarters.
The chart below shows the Q3 earnings growth contrasted with declines in the preceding 5 quarters. As you can see in the chart below, the growth pace is expected to ramp up in 2017.
The market is reflecting this improved earnings backdrop as the chart below of the S&P 500 relative to forward 12-month Zacks Consensus estimates shows.
Note: Sheraz Mian heads the Zacks Equity Research department and is a well-regarded expert of aggregate earnings. He is frequently quoted in the print and electronic media and publishes the weekly Earnings Trends and Earnings Preview reports. If you want an email notification each time Sheraz publishes a new article, click here>>>
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Here is a list of the 161 companies including 4 S&P 500 members reporting this week.
Company
Ticker
Current Qtr
Year-Ago Qtr
Last EPS Surprise %
Report Day
Time
TURNING PT BRND
TPB
0.31
N/A
-12.82%
Monday
BTO
KOPIN CORP
KOPN
-0.11
-0.11
14.29%
Monday
BTO
ADAPTIMMUNE THR
ADAP
-0.29
-0.13
11.11%
Monday
BTO
TOWNSQAR MEDIA
TSQ
0.25
0.09
0.00%
Monday
BTO
HUTCHISN CH-ADR
HCM
-0.06
N/A
N/A
Monday
BTO
NOBILIS HEALTH
HLTH
0.36
0.27
-112.50%
Monday
BTO
LEJU HOLDINGS
LEJU
-0.23
0.11
-16.67%
Monday
BTO
SUPERCOM LTD
SPCB
N/A
0.03
-500.00%
Monday
BTO
DEL TACO RSTRNT
TACO
0.2
N/A
8.33%
Monday
BTO
GENER8 MARITIME
GNRT
0.18
0.59
-125.00%
Monday
BTO
MINERVA NEUROSC
NERV
-0.25
-0.34
-4.35%
Monday
BTO
KMG CHEMICALS
KMG
0.42
0.4
6.67%
Monday
AMC
INTER PARFUMS
IPAR
0.12
0.06
6.12%
Monday
AMC
ARATANA THERAP
PETX
-0.43
-0.37
20.83%
Monday
AMC
TILLYS INC
TLYS
0.21
0.1
120.00%
Monday
AMC
TABULA RASA HLT
TRHC
0.11
N/A
33.33%
Monday
AMC
EXTRACTION O&G
XOG
-0.16
N/A
N/A
Monday
AMC
PEREGRINE PHARM
PPHM
-0.03
-0.08
33.33%
Monday
AMC
RESEARCH FRNTRS
REFR
-0.01
-0.08
50.00%
Monday
AMC
REAL INDUSTRY
RELY
-0.37
-0.15
-185.71%
Monday
AMC
TRIPLEPOINT VEN
TPVG
N/A
0.36
14.29%
Monday
AMC
CRAFT BREW ALLN
BREW
0.09
0.07
-81.25%
Monday
AMC
COHERUS BIOSC
CHRS
-1.63
-1.35
205.70%
Monday
AMC
COUPA SOFTWARE
COUP
-0.21
N/A
-59.09%
Monday
AMC
ENZO BIOCHEM
ENZ
-0.04
-0.07
40.00%
Monday
AMC
RESOURCE CAPITL
RSO
0.02
0.03
-22.58%
Monday
AMC
BELLICUM PHARM
BLCM
-0.69
-0.63
-6.45%
Monday
AMC
INVESTORS RL ES
IRET
0.13
0.13
0.00%
Monday
AMC
LIMONEIRA CO
LMNR
-0.18
-0.29
0.00%
Monday
AMC
AMPHASTAR PHARM
AMPH
N/A
0.16
0.00%
Monday
AMC
GOLDEN ENTMNT
GDEN
0.12
0.03
-60.00%
Monday
AMC
RYERSON HOLDING
RYI
-0.09
-0.46
-20.00%
Monday
AMC
READING INTL
RDI
0.08
0.14
1500.00%
Monday
N/A
NEOS THERAPTCS
NEOS
-1.42
-0.57
0.00%
Tuesday
BTO
DSW INC CL-A
DSW
0.16
0.14
4.08%
Tuesday
BTO
COBALT INTL EGY
CIE
-0.13
-0.17
-20.00%
Tuesday
BTO
HD SUPPLY HLDGS
HDS
0.44
0.27
1.22%
Tuesday
BTO
CUI GLOBAL INC
CUI
-0.07
-0.04
66.67%
Tuesday
BTO
ENERNOC INC
ENOC
-1.13
-1.1
400.00%
Tuesday
BTO
RADNET INC
RDNT
0.11
0.07
-63.64%
Tuesday
BTO
ALLIED MOTN TEC
AMOT
0.19
0.07
-15.63%
Tuesday
BTO
AURIS MEDICAL
EARS
-0.28
-0.16
17.86%
Tuesday
BTO
TRANSMONTN PTNR
TLP
N/A
0.6
18.37%
Tuesday
BTO
VERITIV CORP
VRTV
0.74
0.88
-72.36%
Tuesday
BTO
ADV EMISSIONS
ADES
0.57
-0.13
N/A
Tuesday
BTO
ALBIREO PHARMA
ALBO
-0.88
-1.5
N/A
Tuesday
BTO
AMPCO-PITTSBRGH
AP
-0.34
-0.27
N/A
Tuesday
BTO
BIO-PATH HLDGS
BPTH
-0.03
-0.02
0.00%
Tuesday
BTO
NEXPOINT REIT
NXRT
0.36
0.34
-3.03%
Tuesday
BTO
PATRIOT NATIONL
PN
0.12
0.12
-73.91%
Tuesday
BTO
TRINITY BIOTECH
TRIB
-2.58
0.08
16.67%
Tuesday
BTO
WALTER INV MGMT
WAC
-0.53
-0.32
-185.71%
Tuesday
BTO
YY INC-ADR
YY
1.05
0.96
26.76%
Tuesday
BTO
CLEARSIDE BIO
CLSD
-0.34
N/A
37.78%
Tuesday
BTO
CELLDEX THERAPT
CLDX
-0.34
-0.33
9.38%
Tuesday
AMC
CHEMOCENTRYX
CCXI
0.07
-0.26
-414.29%
Tuesday
AMC
ACHOGEN INC
AKAO
-0.47
-0.61
25.45%
Tuesday
AMC
FOGO DE CHAO
FOGO
0.27
0.29
6.67%
Tuesday
AMC
ARENA PHARMA
ARNA
-0.09
-0.13
28.57%
Tuesday
AMC
CONNECTURE INC
CNXR
0.22
0.19
-50.00%
Tuesday
AMC
INFINITY PHARMA
INFI
-0.56
-0.8
53.57%
Tuesday
AMC
PTC THERAPEUTIC
PTCT
-0.99
-1.5
14.88%
Tuesday
AMC
RESOLUTE ENERGY
REN
0.8
-0.75
-367.86%
Tuesday
AMC
RUBICON PROJECT
RUBI
N/A
0.54
575.00%
Tuesday
AMC
TRITON INTL LTD
TRTN
0.26
0.51
-100.00%
Tuesday
AMC
EVERI HOLDINGS
EVRI
-0.2
0.08
5.88%
Tuesday
AMC
KEANE GROUP INC
FRAC
-0.32
N/A
N/A
Tuesday
AMC
ROSETTA STONE
RST
N/A
-0.26
62.50%
Tuesday
AMC
SIENTRA INC
SIEN
-0.52
-0.78
0.00%
Tuesday
AMC
HOSTESS BRANDS
TWNK
0.13
N/A
N/A
Tuesday
AMC
NEOPHOTONICS CP
NPTN
0.03
0.11
-200.00%
Tuesday
AMC
KURA ONCOLOGY
KURA
-0.39
-0.42
9.76%
Tuesday
AMC
FTD COS INC
FTD
N/A
0.4
550.00%
Tuesday
AMC
CHINA LODGING
HTHT
0.23
0.17
10.71%
Tuesday
AMC
RWE AG -SP ADR
RWEOY
N/A
N/A
N/A
Tuesday
N/A
PRUDENTIAL PLC
PUK
N/A
N/A
N/A
Tuesday
N/A
TITAN INTL INC
TWI
-0.08
-0.38
-38.46%
Wednesday
BTO
VOYAGER THERAPT
VYGR
-0.43
-0.67
14.63%
Wednesday
BTO
ACLARIS THERAPT
ACRS
-0.59
-0.28
26.47%
Wednesday
BTO
AIMMUNE THERAPT
AIMT
-0.46
-0.39
-20.45%
Wednesday
BTO
ABRAXAS PETE/NV
AXAS
-0.01
-0.02
50.00%
Wednesday
BTO
SITEONE LANDSCP
SITE
N/A
N/A
-14.29%
Wednesday
BTO
HARVEST CAP CRD
HCAP
0.4
0.54
38.24%
Wednesday
BTO
NEONODE INC
NEON
-0.01
-0.06
-400.00%
Wednesday
BTO
OFS CAPITAL CRP
OFS
0.35
0.46
-8.11%
Wednesday
BTO
BAVARIAN NORDIC
BVNRY
0.17
0
N/A
Wednesday
BTO
BELLATRIX EXPLR
BXE
-0.05
-0.03
16.67%
Wednesday
BTO
CHRISTOPHER&BNK
CBK
-0.45
-0.24
80.00%
Wednesday
BTO
CONCORDIA INTL
CXRX
N/A
1.08
-132.04%
Wednesday
BTO
GTX INC
GTXI
-0.57
-0.6
0.00%
Wednesday
BTO
PENN WEST EGY
PWE
N/A
-1.73
-27.27%
Wednesday
BTO
E.ON AG-ADR
EONGY
N/A
N/A
N/A
Wednesday
BTO
ORACLE CORP
ORCL
0.57
0.59
0.00%
Wednesday
AMC
PAPA MURPHYS HL
FRSH
0.01
0.12
-160.00%
Wednesday
AMC
INOVIO PHARMAC
INO
-0.29
-0.25
-7.69%
Wednesday
AMC
LATAM AIRLINES
LFL
0.11
0.05
-60.00%
Wednesday
AMC
PRIMO WATER CP
PRMW
-0.33
0.02
0.00%
Wednesday
AMC
TROVAGENE INC
TROV
-0.29
-0.27
-6.25%
Wednesday
AMC
WILLIAMS-SONOMA
WSM
1.52
1.55
2.60%
Wednesday
AMC
RING ENERGY INC
REI
0.02
-0.05
100.00%
Wednesday
AMC
ALARM.COM HLDGS
ALRM
0.12
0.13
60.00%
Wednesday
AMC
ATHENE HOLDING
ATH
1.16
N/A
N/A
Wednesday
AMC
CATALYST PHARMA
CPRX
-0.07
-0.07
16.67%
Wednesday
AMC
EVOKE PHARMA
EVOK
-0.16
-0.37
11.11%
Wednesday
AMC
GUESS INC
GES
0.42
0.57
-21.43%
Wednesday
AMC
AVID TECH INC
AVID
0.15
0.09
0.00%
Wednesday
AMC
CORINDUS VASCLR
CVRS
-0.08
-0.06
-16.67%
Wednesday
AMC
CONTANGO OIL&GS
MCF
-0.23
-2.19
-161.90%
Wednesday
AMC
AETERNA ZENTARS
AEZS
-0.85
-1.46
17.57%
Wednesday
AMC
AROTECH CORP
ARTX
0.02
0.05
700.00%
Wednesday
AMC
MAGICJACK VOCTC
CALL
0.15
0.29
109.09%
Wednesday
AMC
CAPRICOR THERAP
CAPR
-0.24
-0.21
-7.41%
Wednesday
AMC
GRIDSUM HOLDING
GSUM
0
N/A
-288.89%
Wednesday
AMC
HERITAGE INSUR
HRTG
-0.22
0.66
-13.95%
Wednesday
AMC
JABIL CIRCUIT
JBL
0.36
0.46
18.97%
Wednesday
AMC
KLONDEX MINES
KLDX
N/A
0.05
33.33%
Wednesday
AMC
PFENEX INC
PFNX
-0.68
-0.37
343.33%
Wednesday
AMC
PENN VA CP
PVAC
0.3
N/A
N/A
Wednesday
AMC
SHARPSPRING INC
SHSP
-0.12
-0.54
-25.00%
Wednesday
AMC
SYNACOR INC
SYNC
-0.1
-0.01
N/A
Wednesday
AMC
YIRENDAI LTD
YRD
-0.03
0.25
750.00%
Wednesday
AMC
CONATUS PHARMA
CNAT
-0.32
-0.3
6.06%
Wednesday
AMC
PRIMERO MINING
PPP
N/A
0
-500.00%
Wednesday
N/A
DOLLAR GENERAL
DG
1.41
1.3
-3.26%
Thursday
BTO
CELSION CORP
CLSN
-0.19
-0.24
-21.05%
Thursday
BTO
B2GOLD CORP
BTG
0.03
0
25.00%
Thursday
BTO
HISTOGENICS CP
HSGX
-0.47
-0.63
17.74%
Thursday
BTO
MEDLEY MGMT INC
MDLY
0.16
0.14
-12.50%
Thursday
BTO
PROTALIX BIOTHR
PLX
-0.11
N/A
30.00%
Thursday
BTO
PATHEON NV
PTHN
0.2
N/A
17.14%
Thursday
BTO
US PHYSICAL THR
USPH
0.47
0.48
-6.12%
Thursday
BTO
HEIDELBERGCEMNT
HDELY
N/A
N/A
30.00%
Thursday
BTO
JA SOLAR HOLDGS
JASO
-0.07
0.5
400.00%
Thursday
BTO
LIGHTINTHEBOX-A
LITB
0.01
0.11
0.00%
Thursday
BTO
XBIOTECH INC
XBIT
-0.42
-0.37
17.39%
Thursday
BTO
KARYOPHARM THER
KPTI
-0.65
-0.81
13.75%
Thursday
BTO
INSYS THERAP
INSY
-0.05
0.22
20.00%
Thursday
BTO
OSISKO GOLD LTD
OR
0.06
0.09
33.33%
Thursday
BTO
LUFTHANSA -ADR
DLAKY
N/A
N/A
N/A
Thursday
BTO
RENTECH INC
RTK
N/A
-0.48
-121.05%
Thursday
BTO
ADOBE SYSTEMS
ADBE
0.72
0.52
15.28%
Thursday
AMC
CALERES INC
CAL
0.4
0.26
-1.22%
Thursday
AMC
SMART SAND INC
SND
0.5
N/A
-100.00%
Thursday
AMC
BIOAMBER INC
BIOA
-0.19
-0.4
-18.18%
Thursday
AMC
FATE THERAPEUTC
FATE
-0.29
-0.26
3.57%
Thursday
AMC
CATABASIS PHARM
CATB
-0.49
-0.63
16.92%
Thursday
AMC
VIVINT SOLAR
VSLR
-0.42
-0.5
21.74%
Thursday
AMC
EXONE CO/THE
XONE
-0.04
-0.08
-27.78%
Thursday
AMC
EXA CORP
EXA
-0.04
-0.1
125.00%
Thursday
AMC
AQUAVENTURE HLD
WAAS
-0.19
N/A
N/A
Thursday
AMC
WESTMORELAND CO
WLB
1.15
-1.06
-239.39%
Thursday
AMC
BIOTIME INC
BTX
-0.18
-0.16
60.00%
Thursday
AMC
CUMULUS MEDIA
CMLS
-0.61
-0.48
-737.50%
Thursday
AMC
FUTUREFUEL CORP
FF
N/A
0.68
20.83%
Thursday
AMC
GSV CAPITAL CP
GSVC
N/A
-0.24
N/A
Thursday
AMC
LUNA INNOVATION
LUNA
0
-0.02
-100.00%
Thursday
AMC
TPI COMPOSITES
TPIC
-0.09
N/A
200.00%
Thursday
AMC
TIFFANY & CO
TIF
1.37
1.46
13.43%
Friday
BTO
BIODELIVERY SCI
BDSI
-0.27
0.2
-15.38%
Friday
BTO
VUZIX CORP
VUZI
-0.15
-0.24
-60.00%
Friday
BTO
TSAKOS EGY NAVG
TNP
0.06
0.41
-100.00%
Friday
BTO
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Looking Ahead to the Q1 Earnings Season
For most folks, earnings season means the 4 to 6 week period at the end of each calendar quarter when announcements of quarterly earnings releases dominate market headlines. For folks like us, however, who have to monitor and record each and every earnings release, the definition and duration of each earnings season isn’t that simple. Take for example, the 161 companies coming out with quarterly results this week, including 4 S&P 500 members.
Since we are still a couple of weeks away from the end of the March quarter, most folks would assume that all of these reports represent the tail of the 2016 Q4 earnings season. But that’s not correct; not all of this week’s earnings releases fall in the Q4 bucket. In fact, a number of this week’s earnings releases form part of the Q1 earnings season. For example, the Oracle (ORCL - Free Report) report after the market’s close on Wednesday is for that company’s fiscal quarter that ended in February, which will form part of our Q1 earnings tally. The Adobe (ADBE - Free Report) report after the close on Thursday similarly becomes part of the Q1 bucket.
That said, most of this week’s 161 earnings releases do represent the tail of the Q4 reporting cycle. The chart below of weekly reporting calendar for the S&P 500 index clearly shows that we still have another four weeks to go before the Q1 earnings season really takes off.
Expectations for Q1
Total Q1 earnings are expected to be up +6.6% from the same period last year on +6.5% higher revenues. This would follow +7.4% earnings growth in 2016 Q4 on +3.7% revenue growth, the highest growth pace in all most two years.
Estimates for Q1 came down as the quarter unfolded, with the current +6.6% growth down from +10.4% at the end of December. The chart below shows how Q1 earnings growth expectations have evolved over the last three months.
Please note that while Q1 estimates have followed well traversed path that we have been seeing consistently over the last few years, the magnitude of negative revisions compares favorably to other periods. In other words, Q1 estimates have come down, but they haven’t come down by as much.
The table below shows the summary picture for Q1, contrasted with what was actually achieved in Q4 (please note that we have officially closed the books on Q4 yet, as 4 index members still have to report quarterly results).
Recap of the Q4 Earnings Season
We now have Q4 results from 495 S&P 500 members, or 99% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these 495 index members are up +7.5% on +4.8% higher revenues, with 68.5% beating EPS estimates and 54.5% coming ahead of top-line expectations. For the quarter as a whole (combining estimates for the still-to-come 4 index members with what has come out already), total Q4 earnings are on track to be up +7.4% from the same period last year on +3.7% higher revenues.
Any way you look at it, the Q4 earnings season turned out to be a good one. Not only has growth turned out to be the highest in two years, but total earnings for the quarter also reached a new quarterly record. Please recall that earnings growth turned positive only in 2016 Q3, having declined in each of the preceding 5 quarters, as the chart below of year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 index shows.
Importantly, the positive Q4 growth wasn’t a result of easy comparisons, but actually a function of strong gains in earnings. In fact, the overall tally of Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 index is on track to reach an all-time record for the index, surpassing the previous record achieved in 2014 Q4. The chart below shows the quarterly earnings totals for index, contrasting the highlighted Q4 tally with actual results from the last 8 quarters and expected tallies in the coming 4 quarters.
As you can see, this record isn’t expected to last very long, with growth expected to ramp up notably in the coming quarters.
The chart below shows the Q3 earnings growth contrasted with declines in the preceding 5 quarters. As you can see in the chart below, the growth pace is expected to ramp up in 2017.
The market is reflecting this improved earnings backdrop as the chart below of the S&P 500 relative to forward 12-month Zacks Consensus estimates shows.
Note: Sheraz Mian heads the Zacks Equity Research department and is a well-regarded expert of aggregate earnings. He is frequently quoted in the print and electronic media and publishes the weekly Earnings Trends and Earnings Preview reports. If you want an email notification each time Sheraz publishes a new article, click here>>>
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Here is a list of the 161 companies including 4 S&P 500 members reporting this week.