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Bear of the Day: MicroStrategy (MSTR)

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MicroStrategy (MSTR - Free Report) is the $5 billion software, logistics, and IT consulting firm that has become synonymous with the idea of the "Bitcoin balance sheet."

The company's iconic "laser eyes" CEO, Michael Saylor, is often seen on financial and social media expressing the virtues of accumulating Bitcoin for the inevitable run toward $100,000 and much higher.

Looking at the topline revenue growth of MSTR that might justify trading for over 9 times sales, we see 2021 was a year of projected 5.83% growth to $508.75 million.

The coming year doesn't improve much, with only 5.08% forecast growth to $534.6 million.

Shifting to the bottom line, MSTR is coming off of a stellar growth year with projected profits of $6.66 per share, representing a 28.8% advance.

This makes the P/E valuation pretty rich at over 70 times. And next year's EPS forecasts by analysts don't leave much to get excited about with flat to negative growth.

Where Does Bitcoin Fit In?

This is only based on the contributions of two analysts, but therein lies part of the problem. When analysts aren't sure how to model the earnings growth of a company that owns more Bitcoin than its market capitalization, some have preferred to close up their spreadsheets and move along elsewhere.

According to Fortune magazine, in late November recent new Bitcoin purchases by MSTR pushed their holdings to just over 121,000 of the precious "coins."

This lot was valued at nearly $7 billion then. And with an average purchase price of about $29,500 per coin, the company was showing a net gain of about $3.4 billion on those investments.

But Bitcoin has continued its epic slide from all-time highs above $68,000 and MSTR fortunes have fallen with it. The stock of the company was at nearly $900 in early November and this week bounced off of $450.

Grasping MSTR Without BTC

I've written about MSTR in the past as an innovator in global trade logistics, with potential in using Blockchain applications. This core business should be of interest to many investors looking for intelligent exposure to the future of trade.

They just inked a deal with TD SYNNEX (SNX - Free Report) whereby MicroStrategy's comprehensive software platform will include self-service data discovery, enterprise reporting, mobile applications, and embedded analytics to facilitate expansion of TD SYNNEX’s internet of things, data, and analytics portfolio.

As Bitcoin struggles to hang on to support above $40K, many bears are ringing the death rattle. Like Peter Schiff, who believes a bigger reckoning toward $30K is coming.

Whatever the fate of Bitcoin, various MSTR investors may see new opportunities on the horizon.

Just wait until the earnings estimates stabilize. The Zacks Rank will let you know.


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