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Bear of the Day: American Eagle Outfitters

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American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO - Free Report) is a specialty retailer of casual apparel, accessories, outerwear, and footwear for men and women. It, along with its subsidiaries, engages in the designing and marketing of casual clothing.

Share Performance

Year-to-date, AEO shares have pulled back significantly, declining by a jaw-dropping 52% and coming nowhere close to the S&P 500’s performance.

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Stretching out the time frame to over the past year, the story remains the same – AEO shares have been stuck in a deep downtrend throughout the period, losing nearly 65% of their value and underperforming the S&P 500 extensively.

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This clothing retailer's poor share performance is just the first red flag.

Quarterly Performance

AEO has struggled to chain together EPS beats as of late, missing bottom line estimates by a very concerning 33% in its latest quarter. Additionally, quarterly revenue results leave something to be desired – AEO has beaten top line estimates just five times out of its ten last quarters, undoubtedly a sign that the company has struggled.

Estimate Revisions

Analysts have been negatively revising their earnings estimates across the board over the last 60 days, with nearly a 100% agreement revision percentage across all time frames.

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For the upcoming quarter, the Consensus Estimate Trend has fallen by a double-digit 58%, reflecting EPS of $0.17 and a nasty 71% decline in earnings from the year-ago quarter.

Current fiscal year estimates also raise a red flag; the $1.32 EPS estimate displays a sizable 40% decrease in earnings year-over-year.

Bottom Line

AEO shares have been the victim of a deep double-digit valuation slash over the last year. This, paired with negative estimate revisions and weak revenue results, undoubtedly paints a grim picture for the company within the short term.

The company is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) and a stock that investors will be better off staying away from for now. Instead, investors should pivot to stocks that either carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) – the odds of reaping considerable gains are much higher within the companies that carry these ranks.


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