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Bear of the Day: PVH (PVH)

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PVH (PVH - Free Report) is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) that operates as a global apparel company. PVH specializes in designing and marketing branded dress shirts, neckwear, sportswear, jeanswear, intimate apparel, swim products, footwear, handbags, and related products.

The stock has had a rough year, down almost 50% in 2022. As PVH continues to fall to levels not seen since the height of the pandemic, investors might be tempted to buy.

But the company recently cut their guidance for the year, which has forced analysts to cut estimates. Investors might want to be patient with this name until earnings start to improve.

About the Company

PVH is headquartered in New York, NY. The company was founded in 1881 and employs 19,000.

The company's portfolio includes its owned and licensed brands. PVH Corp’s owned brands comprise Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Van Heusen, IZOD, ARROW, Warner’s, Olga and Geoffrey Beene. Its licensed brands include Speedo, Kenneth Cole New York, Michael Kors, Kenneth Cole Reaction, Unlisted, a Kenneth Cole Production, Michael Kors Collection, DKNY and Chaps.

PVH is valued at $3.5 billion and has a Forward PE of 7. The company holds a Zacks Style Scores of “A” in Value, but a “C” in Growth and Momentum. The stock pays out a dividend of 0.3%.

Q2 Earnings

In late August the company reported EPS, beating expectations by 3%. Q2 came in at $2.08 v the $2.01 expected, but revenues came in light at $2.13B v the $2.23B expected.

The company cut their Q3 guidance to a range of $2.10-2.15 v the $2.94 expected. They see revenues down 5-4% year over year.

PVH also cut FY22 EPS to $8.00 v the $8.81 expected. They see FY22 operating margin down 9% and inventory up 19% year over year.

Estimates

Analysts have slashed estimates since the EPS guide lower. Over the last 30 days, there has been a big move lower in the numbers.

For the current quarter, estimates have dropped from $2.94 to $2.21, or 25%. For next quarter, we see a 19% drop, from $2.08 to $1.67. The current year dropped 10%, from $8.80 to $7.89.

Next year the trouble continues, with estimates falling to $10.30 from $8.61, or 16%.

With estimates going lower, price targets are dropping as well. BMO cut their price target to $79 from 88, while JPMorgan Chase went to $75 from $90.

Technical Take

The stock is bleeding lower and has been all year. After starting the year near the $110 mark, PVH is trading at $55.

The stock has not been able to get above and hold the 50-day moving average. The 200-day MA is way up at $77.50 and PVH has not traded that level since January 2022.

The stock is trading at levels not seen since July of 2020. This was during the pandemic and before the vaccines, so clearly something is wrong with this chart.

The stock will likely break the $50 area and then the bears will go hunting for the July 2020 lows around $42. If bulls must buy, that area might be the spot.

In Summary

It is a rough time for some retail as margins fall and inventories build. This atmosphere could last a while, so investors should put their patience over their FOMO in regards to this stock.  

For now, a better option in the sector might be Oxford Industries (OXM - Free Report) . The stock is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) that is trading down only slightly on the year.     


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