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Bear of the Day: Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC)

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Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC - Free Report) is a leading provider of semiconductor packaging and electronic assembly solutions supporting the global automotive, consumer, communications, computing and industrial segments.

As a pioneer in the semiconductor space, K&S has provided customers with market leading packaging solutions for decades. In recent years, K&S has expanded its product offerings through strategic acquisitions and organic development, adding advanced packaging, electronics assembly, wedge bonding and a broader range of expendable tools to its core offerings.

Combined with its extensive expertise in process technology and focus on development, K&S is well positioned to help customers meet the challenges of packaging and assembling the next-generation of electronic devices.

Ahead of Earnings

The market expects Kulicke and Soffa to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2022.

This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on November 16. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

The semiconductor equipment maker is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.91 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -58.1%.

Revenues are expected to be $280 million, down 42.3% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions Trend

The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Earnings Whisper

Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Kulicke and Soffa?

For Kulicke and Soffa, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -6.59%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #5.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Kulicke and Soffa will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?

While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Kulicke and Soffa would post earnings of $1.55 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.09, delivering a surprise of +34.84%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.

Bottom line on KLIC: The stock trades at only 1X sales, but the financial metrics are headed south. Best to stay away until the global dust clears.


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