We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. This includes personalizing content and advertising. To learn more, click here. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Service.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>
Here are the key points:
For 2023 Q3, total S&P 500 earnings are currently expected to be down -2.0% from the same period last year on +0.6% higher revenues, the 4th back-to-back quarter of declining earnings for the index.
Excluding the drag from the Energy sector, whose earnings are expected to decline -36.7% in Q3, earnings for the other 15 Zacks sectors in the S&P 500 index would be up +2.9% on +3.2% higher revenues.
Estimates for 2023 Q3 held up much better than had been the case in the comparable periods of other recent quarters. In fact, Q3 earnings estimates in the aggregate were barely down since the start of the period, with estimates modestly up when negative revisions to the Energy or Finance sector estimates are excluded.
For the 17 S&P 500 companies that have already reported results in recent days for their fiscal quarters ending in August that we count as part of the Q3 tally, total earnings are up +0.6% on +4.02% higher revenues, with 82.4% beating EPS estimates and 70.6% beating revenue estimates.
We have regularly been flagging the steady improvement in the revisions trend since April 2023, with the trend becoming more entrenched in recent months. In order to see this improvement, we have to look below the index level to appreciate the cross-current in estimates at the sector levels.
The aggregate Q3 earnings estimate for the S&P 500 index has declined about -0.1% since the start of the period, with rising estimates for six sectors, including the Tech sector, offsetting continued weakness of varying magnitudes in the remaining sectors. Had it not been for weakness in the Energy or Finance sector estimates, the revisions trend for Q3 for the S&P 500 index would be modestly positive since the start of the period.
In addition to the Tech sector, Q3 estimates have moved higher for the Construction, Autos, Medical, Retail, and Industrials sectors.
For the Construction sector, you can see this favorable revisions trend in estimates for homebuilders like PulteGroup (PHM - Free Report) , KB Home (KBH - Free Report) , and Toll Brothers (TOL - Free Report) .
The chart below shows the revisions trend for PulteGroup, with the current $2.79 EPS estimate for Q3 up from $2.59 on August 4th and $2.10 on July 14th.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The chart below shows the revisions trend for Toll Brothers, with the current $3.64 EPS estimate for Q3 up from $3.55 on August 25th and $3.25 on July 14th.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PulteGroup and Toll Brothers shares are up +58.2% and +42.7% this year, handily outperforming the broader market’s +11.5% gain. While these stocks have lost ground in recent days in response to the rising treasury yields, it will be interesting what happens to the revisions should rates continue going up.
The chart below shows the overall earnings picture on a quarterly basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see from these quarterly earnings-growth expectations, the long-feared recession doesn’t show up in this near-term earnings outlook. A big-picture view of corporate profitability on a long-term basis doesn’t leave much room for a recession either, as you can see in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Given the emerging consensus on the ‘soft-landing’ outlook for the economy, one can expect this favorable turn in the overall earnings picture to strengthen further as companies report Q3 results and share trends in underlying business.
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:
Image: Shutterstock
The Q3 Earnings Season Kicks Off
Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>
Here are the key points:
We have regularly been flagging the steady improvement in the revisions trend since April 2023, with the trend becoming more entrenched in recent months. In order to see this improvement, we have to look below the index level to appreciate the cross-current in estimates at the sector levels.
The aggregate Q3 earnings estimate for the S&P 500 index has declined about -0.1% since the start of the period, with rising estimates for six sectors, including the Tech sector, offsetting continued weakness of varying magnitudes in the remaining sectors. Had it not been for weakness in the Energy or Finance sector estimates, the revisions trend for Q3 for the S&P 500 index would be modestly positive since the start of the period.
In addition to the Tech sector, Q3 estimates have moved higher for the Construction, Autos, Medical, Retail, and Industrials sectors.
For the Construction sector, you can see this favorable revisions trend in estimates for homebuilders like PulteGroup (PHM - Free Report) , KB Home (KBH - Free Report) , and Toll Brothers (TOL - Free Report) .
The chart below shows the revisions trend for PulteGroup, with the current $2.79 EPS estimate for Q3 up from $2.59 on August 4th and $2.10 on July 14th.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The chart below shows the revisions trend for Toll Brothers, with the current $3.64 EPS estimate for Q3 up from $3.55 on August 25th and $3.25 on July 14th.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PulteGroup and Toll Brothers shares are up +58.2% and +42.7% this year, handily outperforming the broader market’s +11.5% gain. While these stocks have lost ground in recent days in response to the rising treasury yields, it will be interesting what happens to the revisions should rates continue going up.
The chart below shows the overall earnings picture on a quarterly basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see from these quarterly earnings-growth expectations, the long-feared recession doesn’t show up in this near-term earnings outlook. A big-picture view of corporate profitability on a long-term basis doesn’t leave much room for a recession either, as you can see in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Given the emerging consensus on the ‘soft-landing’ outlook for the economy, one can expect this favorable turn in the overall earnings picture to strengthen further as companies report Q3 results and share trends in underlying business.