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Illumina ((ILMN - Free Report) ), the maker of million-dollar genome sequencing machines that revolutionized the fields of genetics and biotechnology, has fallen hard in the past year.
And some analysts believe the pain is not over. Barclays just lowered their price target from $150 to $100 as top and bottom line estimates continue to drop.
Illumina is on track for barely positive revenue growth this year and EPS projections in the past few months have dropped from $1.40 to $0.83, representing a 60% annual crash.
While next year's profits are expected to surge back to EPS of $2.42, there is enough uncertainty still in those numbers -- as margins continue to contract -- to keep institutional investors fleeing the stock since its zenith above $500 two years ago.
What's Been Driving the Plummet?
As a former Illumina investor in the past year, I watched two elements unfold that created chaos for the company.
The first was the bid to re-acquire GRAIL in 2020 after Illumina had spun-off the cancer test developer in 2016, but retained a 12% stake.
Regulators in Europe and the U.S. stood in opposition to this move, but Illumina management charged ahead.
The second chaos element was that grizzlie corporate raider Carl Icahn getting involved and trashing Illumina management at every turn.
Icahn even accused them of spinning out and then reacquiring GRAIL in order to enrich Illumina's directors and executives.
For a good timeline of all the drama, see this Reuters article from July which culminates in the EU imposing a $476 million antitrust penalty on the company...
Icahn has certainly succeeded in several ways, including shaking up Illumina management and the board of directors. But he also helped clobber the stock price for himself and other investors. I hope he finds some value now.
"Illumina has changed a lot in the last 10 years and is no longer a 20%+ revenue growth stretching-the-bounds-of-science company."
That quote is from Piper Sandler analyst David Westenberg and it captures what I missed when I thought buying Illumina last year near $200 was a good idea.
Despite this dour realization, the analyst has maintained his optimism, and as recently as September 5 had an Overweight rating and $275 price target on the shares.
In conclusion, here's what I told my Healthcare Innovators member in April when shares had climbed back to $230 and the "biotech battle royale" between Icahn and Illumina was getting hot...
You might imagine where I stand. While I respect Icahn's prowess to dissect balance sheets, income statements, and management teams to extract more value, how much does his team really know about genomic sequencing and the opportunities ahead that are built on key relationships with research institutions and biotech-focused universities?
I tend to favor the scientists here, but that's my bias.
Either way, it will be a great battle at the epicenter of Biotech progress to watch.
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Bear of the Day: Illumina (ILMN)
Illumina ((ILMN - Free Report) ), the maker of million-dollar genome sequencing machines that revolutionized the fields of genetics and biotechnology, has fallen hard in the past year.
And some analysts believe the pain is not over. Barclays just lowered their price target from $150 to $100 as top and bottom line estimates continue to drop.
Illumina is on track for barely positive revenue growth this year and EPS projections in the past few months have dropped from $1.40 to $0.83, representing a 60% annual crash.
While next year's profits are expected to surge back to EPS of $2.42, there is enough uncertainty still in those numbers -- as margins continue to contract -- to keep institutional investors fleeing the stock since its zenith above $500 two years ago.
What's Been Driving the Plummet?
As a former Illumina investor in the past year, I watched two elements unfold that created chaos for the company.
The first was the bid to re-acquire GRAIL in 2020 after Illumina had spun-off the cancer test developer in 2016, but retained a 12% stake.
Regulators in Europe and the U.S. stood in opposition to this move, but Illumina management charged ahead.
The second chaos element was that grizzlie corporate raider Carl Icahn getting involved and trashing Illumina management at every turn.
Icahn even accused them of spinning out and then reacquiring GRAIL in order to enrich Illumina's directors and executives.
For a good timeline of all the drama, see this Reuters article from July which culminates in the EU imposing a $476 million antitrust penalty on the company...
Rocky history of Illumina's Grail deal
Icahn has certainly succeeded in several ways, including shaking up Illumina management and the board of directors. But he also helped clobber the stock price for himself and other investors. I hope he finds some value now.
"Illumina has changed a lot in the last 10 years and is no longer a 20%+ revenue growth stretching-the-bounds-of-science company."
That quote is from Piper Sandler analyst David Westenberg and it captures what I missed when I thought buying Illumina last year near $200 was a good idea.
Despite this dour realization, the analyst has maintained his optimism, and as recently as September 5 had an Overweight rating and $275 price target on the shares.
In conclusion, here's what I told my Healthcare Innovators member in April when shares had climbed back to $230 and the "biotech battle royale" between Icahn and Illumina was getting hot...
You might imagine where I stand. While I respect Icahn's prowess to dissect balance sheets, income statements, and management teams to extract more value, how much does his team really know about genomic sequencing and the opportunities ahead that are built on key relationships with research institutions and biotech-focused universities?
I tend to favor the scientists here, but that's my bias.
Either way, it will be a great battle at the epicenter of Biotech progress to watch.