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Bear Of The Day: AerSale (ASLE)

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AerSale (ASLE - Free Report) is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) as earnings estimates have tracked lower after a recent earnings miss.  The company is in the aerospace market and that space has seen a lot of difficulties thanks to other aerospace manufacturers and their suppliers . This article will look at why this stock is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) as it is the Bear of the Day.

Description

AerSale Corp. provides an integrated, diversified aviation aftermarket products and services for aircraft owners and operators to realize savings in the operation, maintenance and monetization of their aircraft, engines and components. The company's offerings include: Aircraft & Component MRO, Aircraft and Engine Sales and Leasing, Used Serviceable Material sales and internally developed 'Engineered Solutions' to enhance aircraft performance. AerSale Corp., formerly known as Monocle Acquisition Corp., is based in New York.

Earnings History

When I look at a stock, the first thing I do is look to see if the company is beating the number.  This tells me right away where the market’s expectations have been for the company and how management has communicated to the market.  A stock that consistently beats has management communicating expectations to Wall Street that can be achieved.  That is what you want to see.

In the case of AerSale, I see four straight misses of the Zacks Consensus Estimate.  This alone does not make the stock a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and it doesn’t make it a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) either.

The Zacks Rank does care about the earnings history, but it is much more heavily influenced by the movement of earnings estimates.

Earnings Estimates

The Zacks Rank tells us which stocks are seeing earnings estimates move higher or in this case lower.  For ASLE I see annual estimates moving lower of late.

The current year (2024) consensus number moved lower from $1.03 to $0.48 over the last 60 days. 

The next year moved from $1.23 to $0.86 over the last 60 days.

Negative movement in earnings estimates like that is why this stock is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

It should be noted that a lot of stocks in the Zacks universe are seeing negative earnings estimate revisions.  That means that the stocks that are seeing small but negative earnings estimate revisions are falling to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).


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