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Tesla Stock Set for Outsized Move Amid Shareholder Vote

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk has famously stated that he only gets around five to six hours of sleep per night, normally lying awake pondering the issues his companies face.

It’s fair to say that this week, even those numbers may be a bit high.

Tesla's yearly shareholder gathering, scheduled for June 13th, will determine the fate of Musk's significant pay package from 2018 and the company's potential move from Delaware to Texas. Shareholders have been voting over the past month, with the final tally set to be completed later this week.

Earlier this year, a Delaware court invalidated Musk's pay deal, setting the stage for shareholder votes on its reapproval and the relocation proposal. Even if the votes pass, Delaware still holds the authority to reject the compensation package (currently valued at around $45 billion) due to various factors.

Despite the potential dilution of shareholder value posed by the pay deal, Tesla's stock could see a boost if shareholders vote in favor of the proposals, reflecting investor optimism about the company's future prospects in AI and related technologies.

Musk Voting Power and Control

Back in January, Musk posted on X that he was “uncomfortable growing Tesla to be a leader in AI & robotics without having ~25% voting control.” Musk has hinted at the possibility of transferring AI and robotics endeavors to his other ventures if the pay deal doesn't go through.

Although Tesla is primarily known for its electric vehicles, the company’s stock value has becoming increasingly linked to AI and autonomous driving technology. Musk currently enjoys a roughly 13% stake in Tesla.

The Tesla board has strongly recommended that shareholders vote “yes” on both reincorporating in Texas as well as Musk’s compensation. Institutional investors outweigh retail in terms of ownership, with the latter encompassing around 40% of Tesla shares. We’ve seen numerous institutional investors come out in opposition of the package in recent weeks.

But Musk tweeted over the weekend that “roughly 90%” of retail shareholders voted in favor of his compensation package. And he has received some institutional support, including from Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest.

Those in favor of the package argue that since Elon will be required to hold any shares he receives upon exercise of stock options for five years, the package further incentives him to create value for Tesla shareholders.

The Zacks Rundown

Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) has been moving up in the rankings lately and is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock. The company is part of the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry group, which ranks in the top 23% out of more than 250 Zacks Ranked Industries. Because it is ranked in the top half of all Zacks Ranked Industries, we expect this group to outperform the market over the next 3 to 6 months.

Historical research studies suggest that approximately half of a stock’s price appreciation is due to its industry grouping. In fact, the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries outperforms the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

While earnings are expected to take a hit this year due to cooling EV sales and shrinking auto margins, growth is projected to pick back up in 2025. Beyond its auto business, Tesla’s revenues from energy generation and storage are on a robust trajectory on the back of its Megapack and Powerwall products.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot along with its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software represent major AI growth drivers. In addition, the company plans to announce new affordable EV models along with its highly-anticipated RoboTaxi, set to be unveiled in early August.

Tesla Stock Performance

Despite missing first-quarter earnings estimates back in April, TSLA shares rallied above their 50-day moving average for the first time all year. The stock appears to have found support at the key technical level ahead of the shareholder vote.

Image Source: StockCharts

Still, TSLA stock has lost nearly 30% of its value in 2024 and is trying to break out of a sustained downtrend. Bulls would like to see a pattern of higher highs on heavy volume, and ideally a surge back above the 200-day moving average.

Bottom Line

Tesla stock could see an aggressive move this week as the shareholder vote is finalized.

A vote in favor of the package would reflect investor optimism about the company's future prospects and potentially entice Musk to keep more of his AI-related ventures within Tesla.

Make sure to keep an eye on TSLA stock as the week progresses.

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