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Bear of the Day: Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

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Ulta Beauty (ULTA - Free Report) is a leading beauty retailer in the United States. The company offers a wide range of products, including cosmetics, fragrances, skincare, hair care, bath and body products, and salon styling tools in stores.

Analysts have taken a bearish stance on the stock’s outlook, lowering their earnings expectations across the board and landing it into an unfavorable Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

In addition, the company is in the Zacks Retail – Miscellaneous industry, which is currently ranked in the bottom 42% of all Zacks industries. Let’s take a closer look at the company.

Ulta Shares Disappoint

 

ULTA shares have been hit hard in 2024, down 23% and widely underperforming relative to the S&P 500. Quarterly results that have largely disappointed have been a driver behind the share plunge, with the stock not seeing a sustained post-earnings move higher following several periods.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

While the company’s sales growth has been notably strong over recent years, regularly impressing the market, the growth rates have cooled significantly, as shown below. Please note that the chart below tracks the % YoY change in sales, not actual sales numbers.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The stock traded at high multiples for years thanks to its explosive growth, with the current 16.1X forward 12-month earnings multiple a bargain relative to five-year highs of 80.8X. Still, while the stock is historically cheap, waiting for positive earnings estimate revisions to hit the tape would be a better approach.

Bottom Line

Slowing growth paints a challenging picture for the company’s shares in the near term.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA - Free Report) is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), indicating that analysts have taken a bearish stance on the company’s earnings outlook.

For those seeking strong stocks, a great idea would be to focus on stocks carrying a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) – these stocks sport a notably stronger earnings outlook paired with the potential to deliver explosive gains in the near term.


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