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3 Stocks to Buy From Prospering Mortgage & Related Services Industry

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As the Federal Reserve keeps lowering interest rates, the Zacks Mortgage & Related Services industry will benefit from the improving trends of purchase originations and refinancing volumes. This will be led by a gradual decline in mortgage rates. 

However, with rising competition, mortgage servicers continue to be under pressure as they are required to resort to price-cutting, leading to a reduction in sales margins. Nonetheless, with the declining interest rates, the demand for mortgages will improve, thereby supporting industry players like PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (PFSI - Free Report) , Lending Tree, Inc. (TREE - Free Report) and Onity Group Inc. (ONIT - Free Report) .

Industry Description

The Zacks Mortgage & Related Services industry comprises providers of mortgage-related loans, refinancing and other loan-servicing facilities. Numerous banks have been retreating from the mortgage business due to higher compliance and capital requirements. This allowed non-banks to increase their capacity to gain market share in the mortgage loans business, which accounts for the largest class of U.S. consumer debt. Players in the industry are dependent on the interest rates determined by the Federal Reserve, as prevailing rates influence customers' decisions to apply for mortgages. The companies also generate investment income from several financial assets, such as residential or commercial mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities. The firms make equity investments in mortgage-related entities, among others.

3 Mortgage & Related Services Industry Trends to Watch

Relatively Lower Rates to Aid Originations: The housing market is witnessing a rising trend as the U.S. weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate started falling from April to September 2024 in anticipation of the Fed’s first rate cut, influenced by the cooling job market and inflation numbers. However, mortgage rates started rising lately and have been up for six straight weeks. This has resulted from the U.S. presidential election results and mixed macroeconomic data. Nonetheless, the average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage of 6.79% at the week ending Nov. 7 declined from 7.50% in the year-ago week.

Although uncertainty remains, mortgage rates are declining and are less likely to reach the highs seen earlier this year. Hence, mortgage rates are expected to fall through the end of 2024 and in 2025.

There are indications that the housing market is shifting back toward favoring buyers over sellers. With this turnaround, mortgage originations will likely witness a positive trend. This will reduce operational and financial challenges for originators and increase the gain on sale margin and new investment activity.

Refinancing Activities Witnessing Improving Trend: On Nov. 6, the Federal Reserve announced the second rate cut this year after lowering the interest rate by 50 basis points in September. The interest rates were cut by 25 basis points this time, bringing down the federal funds rate to 4.5-4.75%. With this, housing affordability challenges are expected to decline with a fall in mortgage rates. With rates trending lower than the year-ago level and balanced supply/affordability playing out in the mortgage market, demand is set to increase in the coming days.

The decline in mortgage rates will increase prospective home buyers’ purchasing power and allow existing homeowners to refinance. The rise in refinancing activities will support industry players' top-line growth.

According to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly applications survey for the week ending Nov. 6, 2024, applications to refinance a home loan jumped 48% from the year-ago period.

Competition Picking Up:  Per an MBA forecast, U.S. single-family mortgage debt outstanding is expected to see an increasing trend in the upcoming years. This is anticipated to be primarily driven by house price appreciation. While this typically results in growth of the single-family mortgage portfolio for industry players, the competitive landscape of the mortgage services industry is likely to be a deterrent. Numerous companies have hinted at significant declines in gain-on-sale margins across the space. With tighter margins, many originators may struggle to be profitable in the upcoming period.

Zacks Industry Rank Reflects Bright Prospects

The Zacks Mortgage & Related Services industry, housed within the broader Zacks Finance sector, currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #30, which places it in the top 12% of more than 250 Zacks industries.

The group's Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates encouraging prospects in the near term. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1. 

Before we present a couple of stocks you may want to consider for your portfolio, let us look at the industry’s recent stock-market performance and valuation picture.

Industry Outperforms Sector & the S&P 500

The Zacks Mortgage & Related Services industry has outperformed the broader Zacks Finance sector and the S&P 500 composite in the past year.

The industry has gained 55.3% in this period compared with the broader sector's growth of 36.8% and the S&P 500 composite’s rise of 35.7%.

One-Year Price Performance

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Industry's Current Valuation

On the basis of the price-to-book ratio (P/B), which is commonly used for valuing mortgage and related services companies, the industry currently trades at 4.62X compared with the S&P 500's 8.68X.

Over the last five years, the industry has traded as high as 11.62X, as low as 1.18X and at the median of 3.39X, as the chart below shows.

Price-to-Book Ratio (TTM)

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As finance stocks typically have a lower P/B ratio, comparing mortgage and related services companies with the S&P 500 may not make sense to many investors. However, comparing the group's P/B ratio with that of its broader sector ensures that the group is trading at a premium. The Zacks Finance sector's trailing 12-month P/B of 3.85X for the same period is below the Zacks Mortgage & Related Services industry's ratio, as the chart shows below.

Price-to-Book Ratio (TTM)

Zacks Investment Research

3 Mortgage & Related Services Stocks to Bet on

PennyMac: The company is a specialty financial services firm with a comprehensive mortgage platform and integrated business focused on the origination and servicing of mortgage loans, along with the management of investments related to the U.S. mortgage market. The company is based in Moorpark, CA.

In third-quarter 2024, the company reported earnings of $3.49 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.92 per share. Book value per share increased to $72.95 as of Sept. 30, 2024, from $71.76 as of June 30, 2024. PFSI’s multi-channel approach to loan production drives strong competitive advantages over peers.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PFSI’s 2024 earnings is $11.88 per share, indicating a 126.7% surge from the year-ago period’s reported level.

PFSI currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and has a market capitalization of $5.44 billion. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Price and Consensus: PFSI

Zacks Investment Research

Lending Tree: This parent company of LendingTree, LLC, is headquartered in Charlotte, NC, and has been operating solely in the United States since July 1998. Its online marketplace provides clients with access to product offerings from more than 600 partners.

In the third quarter of 2024, adjusted net income per share of 80 cents topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 67 cents. Total revenues grew 68% year over year to $260.8 million. The rise stemmed from a substantial increase in the Insurance segment's revenues. Also, the reported figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.9%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TREE’s 2024 earnings is pegged at $2.60 per share, indicating a 14% rise from the year-ago period’s reported level.

TREE currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and a market capitalization of $698.03 million.

Price and Consensus: TREE

Zacks Investment Research
 

Onity Group: Based in West Palm Beach, FL, the company operates in the United States, the U.S. Virgin Islands, India and the Philippines. It is a non-bank mortgage servicer and originator providing solutions through its primary brands, PHH Mortgage and Liberty Reverse Mortgage.

In the third quarter of 2024, the company’s earnings adjusted for non-recurring costs were $4.33 per share, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.60 with a wide margin. Moreover, book value per share of $59.5 as of the third-quarter 2024 end increased 4.4% from the prior quarter. Originations volume of $8.5 billion increased 23% on a sequential basis.

Increased adjusted return on equity, enhanced book value per share and an improved debt-to-equity ratio are expected to benefit the company in the upcoming period.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ONIT’s 2024 earnings has been unchanged over the past month. This suggests an increase of 59% from the prior year's reported figure.

The company sports a Zacks Rank of 1 at present and has a market capitalization of $243.9 million.



Price and Consensus: ONIT

 

Zacks Investment Research



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