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Bear Of The Day: Ares Management (ARES)

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Ares Management (ARES - Free Report) is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) after the company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate when the last reported on November 1. The company is a global alternative asset manager that has four investment groups that invest in the tradable credit, direct lending, and private equity and real estate markets. This article will look at why this stock is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) as it is the Bear of the Day.

Description                       

Ares Management engages in the provision of investment and consultancy services. It operates through the following segments: Credit Group, Private Equity Group, Real Assets Group, Secondaries Group, and Other. The Credit Group segment includes the management of strategies across the liquid and illiquid spectrum, direct lending, and Asia-Pacific. The Private Equity Group segment involves the categorization of investment strategies as corporate, special opportunities, and Asia-Pacific. The Real Assets Group segment focuses on equity and debt strategies across infrastructure investments. The Secondaries Group segment consists of investment in secondary markets, alternative asset class strategies, private equity, real estate, infrastructure, and credit. The company was founded by Michael J. Arougheti, David B. Kaplan, John H. Kissick, Antony P. Ressler, and Bennett Rosenthal in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, CA.

Earnings History

When I look at a stock, the first thing I do is look to see if the company is beating the number.  This tells me right away where the market’s expectations have been for the company and how management has communicated to the market.  A stock that consistently beats has management communicating expectations to Wall Street that can be achieved.  That is what you want to see.

In the case of Ares Management (ARES - Free Report) , I see three beats and one miss of the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the last year. The most recent quarter was a beat with the company posting $0.95 when the consensus was calling for $0.94.  This alone does not make the stock a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and it doesn’t make it a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) either.

The Zacks Rank does care about the earnings history, but it is much more heavily influenced by the movement of earnings estimates.

Earnings Estimates

The Zacks Rank tells us which stocks are seeing earnings estimates move higher or in this case lower.  For ARES I see annual estimates moving lower of late.

The current fiscal year consensus number moved lower from $4.15 to $4.07 over the last 60 days. 

The next year has moved from $5.80 to $5.53 over the last 60 days.

Negative movement in earnings estimates like that is why this stock is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

It should be noted that a lot of stocks in the Zacks universe are seeing negative earnings estimate revisions.  That means that the stocks that are seeing small but negative earnings estimate revisions are falling to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).


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