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Tesla to Debut Self-Driving Taxi in June as Robotaxi Wars Begin

Disrupt or be Disrupted

Technological advances are always at the heart of disruption on Wall Street, and thus, the most profitable long-term trend opportunities. However, it will mean a slow, painful death for companies who fail to adapt and evolve. Conversely, the rewards are substantial for companies that respond to market changes and debut new technologies. For instance, Blockbuster Video did little to adapt when Netflix ((NFLX - Free Report) ) first began its mail-order DVD service (which later morphed into a streaming service). The result? Blockbuster went bust, and Netflix would become one of the best-performing stocks of the 2000s.

Why Robotaxis are Taking Over

Over the past few months, the idea of autonomous vehicles has gone from dream to reality. Advancements in artificial intelligence, software, cameras, and sensors have made this possible. Robotaxis provide several benefits, including:

  • Safety: Drive on the road for more than a half hour in any major US city and you are likely to witness at least one driver glancing down at their Apple ((AAPL - Free Report) ) Pphone. Robotaxis promise to reduce human error and distraction, reducing the number of accidents.
  • Cost Reduction: By eliminating the need for human drivers, ride-hailing operators can become far more profitable.
  • More Vehicles: Because robotaxis don’t need to take breaks like humans (outside of recharging), they can run nearly 24/7, increasing the number of vehicles on the road, improving customer wait times while increasing profitability.

The Robotaxi Wars are Here

Thus far, Alphabet’s ((GOOGL - Free Report) ) “Waymo” service is the undisputed king of robotaxis. Waymo is the first major robotaxi player to gain regulatory clearance, operates in four US cities (with plans to add two more), and its paid robotaxi business has exploded to more than 250,000 paid rides per week. Meanwhile, Waymo has inked a strategic partnership with Uber Technologies ((UBER - Free Report) ), operator of the most-extensive ride-sharing application and network.

Tesla Will Enter the Robotaxi Market in June

While Tesla ((TSLA - Free Report) ) and its visionary CEO Elon Musk, are behind in the robotaxi wars, the race to robotaxi supremacy is in the early innings. Musk has said several times over that past few years that he is “betting the company” on autonomous vehicle technology and believes that robotaxis will revolutionize transportation and potentially increase the value of a Tesla by fivefold. Though Tesla’s robotaxi debut has been delayed several times, Tesla has finally begun testing its robotaxi service with employees in Austin, Texas. Next month, Tesla will start to roll out its robotaxi to customers through its in-house built mobile application.

Waymo vs. Tesla: Who Will Win the Robotaxi War?  

Waymo has an early advantage in the robotaxi war. While Tesla has yet to launch, Waymo is a proven entity that is well on its way to reaching scale. That said, it is far too early to count Tesla out. A critical difference between Waymo and Tesla robotaxis is cost. Waymo autonomous vehicles are far more expensive than Tesla robotaxis. Because Waymo leverages expensive LiDAR, radar, cameras, and AI, it can cost about $180,000! Conversely, Tesla robotaxis will only rely on computer vision AI, costing about $50,000 to produce.

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In other words, while Tesla is behind in the robotaxi race, its lower cost could allow it to catch up in scale and also enjoy jucier profit margins in the long run.

Bottom Line

While Waymo currently holds a significant lead, Tesla’s impending entry (with game-changing cost advantage) injects uncertainty into the future landscape of autonomous transportation. It means the robotaxi wars may just be starting.

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