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Bear of the Day: J&J Snack Foods (JJSF)

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J&J Snack Foods manufactures, markets, and distributes snack food and beverages to the food service and retail supermarket industries in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Known for its SuperPretzel soft pretzels and ICEE frozen drinks, the company offers a variety of bakery products such as fig and fruit bars, cookies, donuts, churros, and muffins.

Incorporated in 1971 and headquartered in Mount Laurel, New Jersey, J&J Snack Foods also sells machines and machine parts to other food and beverage companies. It markets its products through department stores, fast food and casual dining restaurants, theme parks, convenience stores, movie theaters, and independent retailers.

The company faces several headwinds amid a challenging operating environment. A modest revenue base provides the company less fixed cost leverage and fewer distribution channels relative to larger competitors. Estimated sales growth of less than 2% for the current fiscal year implies a slowdown from recent trends.

The Zacks Rundown

A Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) stock, J&J Snack Foods (JJSF - Free Report) is a component of the Zacks Food – Miscellaneous industry group, which currently ranks in the bottom 43% out of approximately 250 Zacks Ranked Industries. As such, we expect this industry group as a whole to underperform the market over the next 3 to 6 months, just as it has over the past year:

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Stocks in the bottom tiers of industries can often be intriguing short candidates. While individual stocks have the ability to outperform even when they’re part of a lagging industry, the inclusion in a weaker group serves as a headwind for any potential rallies and the journey forward is that much more difficult.

JJSF shares have been underperforming over the past year. The stock is hitting a series of lower lows and represents a compelling short opportunity as we head further into 2025.

Recent Earnings Misses & Deteriorating Outlook

J&J Snack Foods has fallen short of earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. Just last week, the company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $0.35 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a whopping -49.3%. J&J Snack Foods has posted a trailing four-quarter average earnings miss of -28.1%.

A drop in volume across larger segments like churros and pretzels dented first-quarter sales, causing a sharp drop in gross profit. Falling short of earnings estimates is a recipe for underperformance, and JJSF is no exception.

The company has been on the receiving end of negative earnings estimate revisions as of late. Looking at the current quarter, analysts have slashed estimates by -12.06% in the past 60 days. The fiscal Q3 Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate is now $1.75 per share, reflecting negative growth of -11.6% relative to the year-ago period.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Falling earnings estimates are a huge red flag and need to be respected. Negative growth year-over-year is the type of trend that bears like to see.

Technical Outlook

As illustrated below, JJSF stock is in a sustained downtrend. Notice how the stock has made a series of lower lows, widely underperforming the major indices. Also note that shares are trading below downward-sloping 50-day (blue line) and 200-day (red line) moving averages – another good sign for the bears.

StockCharts
Image Source: StockCharts

JJSF stock has experienced what is known as a “death cross,” whereby the stock’s 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day moving average. Shares would have to make an outsized move to the upside and show increasing earnings estimate revisions to warrant taking any long positions. The stock has fallen more than 20% this year alone.

Final Thoughts

A deteriorating fundamental and technical backdrop show that this stock is not set to make its way to new highs anytime soon. The fact that JJSF is included in one of the worst-performing industry groups provides yet another headwind to a long list of concerns.

A history of earnings misses and falling future earnings estimates will likely serve as a ceiling to any potential rallies, nurturing the stock’s downtrend.

Potential investors may want to give this stock the cold shoulder, or perhaps include it as part of a short or hedge strategy. Bulls will want to steer clear of JJSF until the situation shows major signs of improvement.


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