Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Is Brian Armstrong's $1 Million BTC Prediction by 2030 Unrealistic?

When Brian Armstrong Talks, the Crypto Industry Listens

Billionaire Brian Armstrong is one of the most followed and respected CEOs on Wall Street, specifically in the crypto industry. Having discovered the Bitcoin white paper in 2010, Armstrong is one of the earliest Bitcoin adopters. Additionally, after quitting his software engineering job at Airbnb ((ABNB - Free Report) ), Armstrong founded Coinbase Global ((COIN - Free Report) ), the leading American crypto exchange. In an industry where many CEOs come and go, Armstrong has navigated Coinbase through stringent regulatory hurdles and numerous devastating crypto bear markets, building the company into the $100 billion juggernaut it is today.

Brian Armstrong Predicts that Bitcoin will Reach $1 Million by 2030

In a recent interview with Fox Business’s Liz Claman, Brian Armstrong predicted that Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin by the end of the decade.

What are Brian Armstrong’s Bullish Bitcoin Tailwinds

Armstrong’s reasons for a $1 million Bitcoin price include:

1.       The Emergence of Crypto Regulatory Clarity: Armstrong cited crypto regulatory legislation such as the GENIUS Act as a critical catalyst for Bitcoin. The GENIUS Act provides stablecoin operators such as Coinbase and Circle Group ((CRCL - Free Report) ) with clear rules for conducting business. For years, Armstrong had been an outspoken critic of the lack of regulatory clarity and former SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s “regulation by enforcement” approach. With new pro-crypto SEC Chair Paul Atkins in charge, Armstrong views the days of unclear regulation as in the past.

2.       International Governments will Adopt Bitcoin:  Armstrong believes that “G20” countries and international governments will adopt Bitcoin, with the US government’s plan for a “Bitcoin Strategic Reserve” as the first domino to fall.

3.       Institutional Bitcoin Adoption: Armstrong predicts a surge in Bitcoin adoption, driven by the access that ETFs like the iShares Bitcoin ETF ((IBIT - Free Report) ) and the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF ((ARKB - Free Report) ) offer. Moreover, he sees an institutional supply shock because as demand increases, Bitcoin’s supply will never exceed 21 million Bitcoins.

What Brian Armstrong Believes Can Derail Bitcoin

The biggest threat to Armstrong’s Bitcoin bull case is that traditional banks, such as JPMorgan Chase ((JPM - Free Report) ) and their lobbyists, will try to “choke the industry.” As crypto solutions like stablecoins disrupt traditional banking, allowing customers to earn higher interest and send money more efficiently and cheaply, Armstrong reiterated that government officials must “hold the line.”

Is $1 Million Bitcoin by 2030 Realistic?

Instead of making assumptions or guesses, the savviest analysts use historical data to make sense of markets. Based on Bitcoins current price of ~$122,517.40, Bitcoin would require a 52.18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to reach $1 million per coin by the end of the decade. Here’s why that’s not crazy:

·       Over the past decade, Bitcoin has achieved a CAGR of ~84%, meaning that Bitcoin could actually perform worse than that over the next five years and still reach Armstrong’s price target.

·       Since its inception, Bitcoin has achieved a CAGR of more than 100%.

Bottom Line

While Brian Armstrong’s $1 million Bitcoin price target by 2030 may sound sensational, his bull thesis is grounded in powerful market dynamics. Meanwhile, from a historical mathematical perspective, Armstrong’s prediction is achievable.


 

Published in