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3 Key Takeaways From the Q3 Earnings Season So Far
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Key Takeaways
We now have Q3 results from 58 S&P 500 members.
Netflix and Tesla report this week.
Finance results have gotten us off to a great start.
We get into the heart of the Q3 earnings season this week, with more than 300 companies reporting quarterly results, including 85 S&P 500 members. By the end of this week, we will have seen Q3 results from more than 28% of the index’s total membership, reflecting a fairly broad and representative cross-section across different sectors.
With Q3 results from more than 11% of S&P 500 members already in hand, it is hardly premature to draw positive and reassuring conclusions. While acknowledging that the sample of results at this stage is somewhat weighted towards the Finance sector, here are our three takeaways from the results thus far.
First, the proportion of companies beating EPS and revenue estimates is tracking above historical averages. This is notable when combined with the fact that, unlike other post-COVID periods, Q3 estimates had actually moved up since the start of the period.
The comparison charts below show the Q3 EPS and revenue beats percentages for the 58 S&P 500 members that have already reported results.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The chart below shows the blended beats percentage for the same group of index members. Please note that ‘blended’ means the proportion of these 58 index members that have beaten both EPS and revenue estimates.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Second, the revisions trend continues to remain positive. As noted earlier, estimates for Q3 had moved up since the quarter got underway, and we are seeing a similar trend at play for Q4, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
It will be interesting to keep track of this evolution over the next few weeks as the bulk of the Q3 results come out and management teams provide explicit or qualitative updates on business trends in their respective spaces. But we are off to a good start on this key measure of earnings outlook.
Third, aggregate Q3 earnings are on track to reach a new all-time quarterly record. Combining the actual earnings for the 58 S&P 500 members that have reported already with estimates for the still-to-come index members, the aggregate total net income for the index comes to $592.5 billion, a new all-time quarterly record.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Key Earnings Reports This Week
This week’s line-up of Q3 earnings releases moves beyond the Finance sector, which has dominated the reporting cycle thus far. The 85 S&P 500 members on deck to report results this week represent diverse sectors, ranging from General Motors, Ford, and Tesla in the automotive sector to Halliburton and Baker Hughes in the Energy sector to IBM, Lam Research, and Texas Instruments from the Tech sector to consumer-facing bellwethers like Netflix, Procter & Gamble, and others.
Netflix (NFLX - Free Report) will report after the market’s close on Tuesday, October 21st, with the company expected to come out with $6.89 per share in earnings on $11.52 billion in revenues, representing year-over-year changes of +27.6% and +17.3%, respectively. The stock hasn’t done much since the last quarterly release in mid-July, but has been a stellar performer this year, up +34.6% vs. the S&P 500 index’s +14.4% gain in the year-to-date period. While estimates for Q4 and next year inched up lately, the same for Q3 remain unchanged over the last three months.
Netflix no longer reports subscriber additions, but the company continues to gain ground on this key metric, particularly through the lower-priced ad-supported tier. Given Netflix’s sizable installed base of streaming subscribers and plans around live events and gaming, advertising revenues will increasingly become the primary growth driver.
Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) becomes the first Mag 7 member to report Q3 results after the market’s close on Wednesday, October 22nd. The expectation is for Q3 earnings of $0.53 per share on $26.45 billion in revenues, representing year-over-year changes of -26.4% and +5.1%, respectively.
There are multiple moving parts to the Tesla story, ranging from AI and robotaxi to the company’s China business and trends on the deliveries front. The company is in the process of ramping up the production of its lowest priced vehicle, though plans for the $25K car appear to have been put on hold for now to prioritize producing the cheaper, stripped down versions of models 3 and Y. With respect to deliveries, the expectation is 467,163 for the quarter, up from 384,122 in the June quarter and 462,890 in the year-earlier period.
Tesla shares have made an impressive recovery after losing ground through April, currently up +8.7% in the year-to-date period and lagging the market and legacy domestic OEM rivals General Motors (GM - Free Report) and Ford (F - Free Report) , as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
General Motors is reporting Q3 results before the market’s open on Tuesday, October 21st, while Ford reports after the market’s close on Thursday, October 23rd.
Q3 Earnings Season Scorecard
Including all the reports that have come out through Monday morning, we now have Q3 results from 58 S&P 500 members or 11.6% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these companies are up +15.4% from the same period last year on +8% higher revenues, with 86.2% beating EPS estimates and 79.3% beating revenue estimates.
The comparison charts below put the Q3 earnings and revenue growth rates from these companies in a historical context.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
We have shown the beats percentages comparisons earlier, so here we would instead show the revenue growth performance and the ‘blended’ beats percentages instead for this group of 58 index members
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For the Finance sector, we now have Q3 results for 47.7% of the sector’s market capitalization in the S&P 500 index. Total earnings for these Finance companies are up +20.4% from the same period last year on +10.9% higher revenues, with 96.2% beating EPS estimates and 88.5% beating revenue estimates.
The proportion of these Finance sector companies beating both EPS and revenue estimates (‘blended’ beats percentage) is 88.5%. The comparison charts below show the sector’s Q3 revenue growth performance across recent quarters and the sector’s Q3 ‘blended’ beats percentage.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Earnings Big Picture
The chart below shows current Q3 earnings and revenue growth expectations for the S&P 500 index in the context of the preceding 4 quarters and the coming four quarters.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Please note that the +6.4% earnings growth rate for Q3 shown above represents the blended growth rate for the quarter, which combines the actual results for the 58 companies that have reported with estimates for the still-to-come companies.
The chart below shows the overall earnings picture on a calendar-year basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of S&P 500 index ‘EPS’, these growth rates approximate to $256.04 for 2025 and $288.77 for 2026.
Image: Bigstock
3 Key Takeaways From the Q3 Earnings Season So Far
Key Takeaways
We get into the heart of the Q3 earnings season this week, with more than 300 companies reporting quarterly results, including 85 S&P 500 members. By the end of this week, we will have seen Q3 results from more than 28% of the index’s total membership, reflecting a fairly broad and representative cross-section across different sectors.
With Q3 results from more than 11% of S&P 500 members already in hand, it is hardly premature to draw positive and reassuring conclusions. While acknowledging that the sample of results at this stage is somewhat weighted towards the Finance sector, here are our three takeaways from the results thus far.
First, the proportion of companies beating EPS and revenue estimates is tracking above historical averages. This is notable when combined with the fact that, unlike other post-COVID periods, Q3 estimates had actually moved up since the start of the period.
The comparison charts below show the Q3 EPS and revenue beats percentages for the 58 S&P 500 members that have already reported results.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The chart below shows the blended beats percentage for the same group of index members. Please note that ‘blended’ means the proportion of these 58 index members that have beaten both EPS and revenue estimates.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Second, the revisions trend continues to remain positive. As noted earlier, estimates for Q3 had moved up since the quarter got underway, and we are seeing a similar trend at play for Q4, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
It will be interesting to keep track of this evolution over the next few weeks as the bulk of the Q3 results come out and management teams provide explicit or qualitative updates on business trends in their respective spaces. But we are off to a good start on this key measure of earnings outlook.
Third, aggregate Q3 earnings are on track to reach a new all-time quarterly record. Combining the actual earnings for the 58 S&P 500 members that have reported already with estimates for the still-to-come index members, the aggregate total net income for the index comes to $592.5 billion, a new all-time quarterly record.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Key Earnings Reports This Week
This week’s line-up of Q3 earnings releases moves beyond the Finance sector, which has dominated the reporting cycle thus far. The 85 S&P 500 members on deck to report results this week represent diverse sectors, ranging from General Motors, Ford, and Tesla in the automotive sector to Halliburton and Baker Hughes in the Energy sector to IBM, Lam Research, and Texas Instruments from the Tech sector to consumer-facing bellwethers like Netflix, Procter & Gamble, and others.
Netflix (NFLX - Free Report) will report after the market’s close on Tuesday, October 21st, with the company expected to come out with $6.89 per share in earnings on $11.52 billion in revenues, representing year-over-year changes of +27.6% and +17.3%, respectively. The stock hasn’t done much since the last quarterly release in mid-July, but has been a stellar performer this year, up +34.6% vs. the S&P 500 index’s +14.4% gain in the year-to-date period. While estimates for Q4 and next year inched up lately, the same for Q3 remain unchanged over the last three months.
Netflix no longer reports subscriber additions, but the company continues to gain ground on this key metric, particularly through the lower-priced ad-supported tier. Given Netflix’s sizable installed base of streaming subscribers and plans around live events and gaming, advertising revenues will increasingly become the primary growth driver.
Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) becomes the first Mag 7 member to report Q3 results after the market’s close on Wednesday, October 22nd. The expectation is for Q3 earnings of $0.53 per share on $26.45 billion in revenues, representing year-over-year changes of -26.4% and +5.1%, respectively.
There are multiple moving parts to the Tesla story, ranging from AI and robotaxi to the company’s China business and trends on the deliveries front. The company is in the process of ramping up the production of its lowest priced vehicle, though plans for the $25K car appear to have been put on hold for now to prioritize producing the cheaper, stripped down versions of models 3 and Y. With respect to deliveries, the expectation is 467,163 for the quarter, up from 384,122 in the June quarter and 462,890 in the year-earlier period.
Tesla shares have made an impressive recovery after losing ground through April, currently up +8.7% in the year-to-date period and lagging the market and legacy domestic OEM rivals General Motors (GM - Free Report) and Ford (F - Free Report) , as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
General Motors is reporting Q3 results before the market’s open on Tuesday, October 21st, while Ford reports after the market’s close on Thursday, October 23rd.
Q3 Earnings Season Scorecard
Including all the reports that have come out through Monday morning, we now have Q3 results from 58 S&P 500 members or 11.6% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these companies are up +15.4% from the same period last year on +8% higher revenues, with 86.2% beating EPS estimates and 79.3% beating revenue estimates.
The comparison charts below put the Q3 earnings and revenue growth rates from these companies in a historical context.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
We have shown the beats percentages comparisons earlier, so here we would instead show the revenue growth performance and the ‘blended’ beats percentages instead for this group of 58 index members
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For the Finance sector, we now have Q3 results for 47.7% of the sector’s market capitalization in the S&P 500 index. Total earnings for these Finance companies are up +20.4% from the same period last year on +10.9% higher revenues, with 96.2% beating EPS estimates and 88.5% beating revenue estimates.
The proportion of these Finance sector companies beating both EPS and revenue estimates (‘blended’ beats percentage) is 88.5%. The comparison charts below show the sector’s Q3 revenue growth performance across recent quarters and the sector’s Q3 ‘blended’ beats percentage.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Earnings Big Picture
The chart below shows current Q3 earnings and revenue growth expectations for the S&P 500 index in the context of the preceding 4 quarters and the coming four quarters.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Please note that the +6.4% earnings growth rate for Q3 shown above represents the blended growth rate for the quarter, which combines the actual results for the 58 companies that have reported with estimates for the still-to-come companies.
The chart below shows the overall earnings picture on a calendar-year basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of S&P 500 index ‘EPS’, these growth rates approximate to $256.04 for 2025 and $288.77 for 2026.
For a detailed view of the evolving earnings picture, please check out our weekly Earnings Trends report here >>>>Q3 Earnings Season Starts Positively: A Closer Look