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Mag 7 Earnings Outlook Improves: A Closer Look

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Key Takeaways

  • The Q3 reporting cycle is over for the Mag 7 group.
  • Mag 7 earnings were up 28.3% YoY on 18.2% higher revenues.
  • Q4 Mag 7 expectations have been trending higher.

Nvidia’s (NVDA - Free Report) beat-and-raise quarterly results have eased the market’s AI-centric worries for now, but the issue is unlikely to go away completely.

The chipmaker has been a big beneficiary of the ongoing AI-focused spending surge, as it is Nvidia’s graphics processing units that are running the datacenters. The stock has lost ground as the aforementioned worries took hold at the start of this month, but it is still up more than +35% this year, handily outperforming the broader market.

The broader Mag 7 group, of which Nvidia is a key member, has returned largely in-line with the broader market, up +13.7% vs. a gain of +14.1% for the S&P 500 index. The market doesn’t appear to be equally worried about all AI players in the ongoing pullback, with Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) continuing to get credit for its efforts even as Meta (META - Free Report) and some of the others get shunned.

Nvidia’s Q3 earnings were up +57.3% from the same period last year on +62.5% higher revenues, putting the company on track to more than double its full-year 2025 earnings from the year-earlier level. Earnings for next year are currently expected to be up +55%, followed by +26.7% growth in 2027.

This seemingly decelerating growth trend is solely a function of base effects, as demand trends for Nvidia’s chips remain red hot over the next two years. Demand will eventually moderate as we move past the buildout phase of AI infrastructure, and the stock’s recent weakness is likely a reflection of that.

One could argue that the stock’s impressive gains over the last few years, that has pushed its market capitalization to over $4 trillion, have already factored in these expectations. But if estimates keep rising, as we are starting to see again following the beat-and-raise quarterly results, then Nvidia shareholders will legitimately expect the stock to sustain its positive trajectory. You can see Nvidia’s enviable estimate revisions trend in the below Price, Consensus & Surprise chart.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Including Nvidia, the Mag 7 group’s Q3 earnings increased +28.3% from the same period last year on +18.1% higher revenues, which would follow the group’s +26.4% earnings growth on +15.5% revenue growth.

Not all members of the elite group are equally contributing to the growth pace, ranging from Tesla’s (TSLA - Free Report) -39.5% earnings decline in Q3 to Nvidia’s +57.3% jump and Alphabet’s (GOOGL - Free Report) +33% growth pace.

The chart below shows the group’s blended Q3 earnings and revenue growth relative to what was achieved in the preceding period and what is expected in the coming three periods.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Estimates for the current period (2025 Q4) are going up, with the current earnings growth rate of +15.4% up from +14.3% a week back and +12.2% two weeks ago.

The chart below shows the Mag 7 group’s earnings and revenue growth picture on an annual basis.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

As you can see above, the group’s 2026 earnings are currently expected to be up +14.6%, followed by +16.8% in 2027.

The important factor to keep in mind is that the Mag 7 earnings outlook is steadily improving, as the chart below shows.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Please note that the Mag 7 group is on track to bring in 26% of all S&P 500 earnings in 2026, up from 23.2% of the total in 2024 and 11.7% in 2019. Regarding market capitalization, the Mag 7 group currently carries a 34.7% weight in the index.

Q3 Earnings Season Scorecard

Including all reports released through Friday, November 21st, we now have Q3 results from 473 S&P 500 members, or 94.8% of the index’s total membership. The reporting cycle has come to an end for 10 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with most of the remaining results from the Tech and Retail sectors.

Total earnings for these companies are up +15.6% from the same period last year on +8.3% higher revenues, with 83.4% beating EPS estimates and 75.6% beating revenue estimates.

The comparison charts below put the Q3 earnings and revenue growth rates from these companies in a historical context.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The comparison charts below show the Q3 EPS and revenue beats percentages in a historical context.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

For the Retail sector, we now have Q3 results for 83.3% of the sector’s members in the S&P 500 index. Total earnings for these Retail companies are up +16.9% from the same period last year on +7.7% higher revenues, with 72% beating EPS estimates and 84% beating revenue estimates.

The comparison charts below show the sector’s Q3 EPS and revenue beats percentages in a historical context.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The comparison charts below show the sector’s Q3 earnings and revenue growth rates in a historical context. We like to show the Retail sector’s growth comparisons with and without Amazon’s results, given the e-commerce giant’s enormous heft. The chart on the right side shows the sector’s Q3 earnings and revenue growth performance without Amazon’s contribution.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Earnings Big Picture

The chart below shows current Q3 earnings and revenue growth expectations for the S&P 500 index in the context of the preceding four quarters and the coming four.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Please note that the +15.2% earnings growth rate for Q3 shown above represents the blended growth rate for the quarter, which combines the actual results for the 473 companies that have reported with estimates for the still-to-come companies.

The chart below shows the overall earnings picture on a calendar-year basis.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

In terms of S&P 500 index ‘EPS’, these growth rates approximate to $261.68 for 2025 and $292.52 for 2026. The chart below shows how next year’s index ‘EPS’ estimate has evolved since the start of the second half of the year

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

For a detailed view of the evolving earnings picture, please check out our weekly Earnings Trends report here >>>>Q3 Earnings Season: Retail Sector in Focus

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