While geopolitical conflicts grab headlines and spark initial volatility, stocks typically have a remarkable ability to look forward and move on.

The recent escalation in the Iran conflict—marked by U.S. and Israeli strikes, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and oil price spikes—has understandably unsettled investors. Yet, the S&P 500 has declined only about 3% since the heightened tensions began, a relatively muted reaction compared to past crises.

History shows that markets often absorb such shocks quickly, typically recovering within weeks or months if no sustained energy crisis materializes. With oil prices already cooling and positive seasonal patterns approaching, we believe this risk-off phase is temporary. Technology, after a subpar start to the year, stands ready to retake the lead as fundamentals reassert themselves.

Historical Precedent Points to Bullish View

The pattern is well-established. Analyses of major post-World War II conflicts reveal that the S&P 500 has, on average, returned to pre-event levels within about 28 days and posted positive gains one year later in most cases. Geopolitical shocks tend to cause sharp but short-lived pullbacks, especially when the underlying economy remains resilient.

In the current episode, the market’s composure reflects several stabilizing factors: diversified global supply chains have limited oil disruption impacts, central banks have signaled policy flexibility, and corporate earnings have shown surprising durability. This resilience reminds us that investors often price in worst-case scenarios early, only to recalibrate as reality proves less dire.

And there were some positives over this past weekend. Media reports suggested several tankers successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz, offering a glimpse of hope that put downward pressure on oil prices. President Trump also requested that allies join the U.S. in disrupting Iran’s blockade of the Strait.

Looking ahead, several drivers point to a potential rebound. Strong seasonality is upon us as markets enter the second half of March, while April performance for the S&P 500 is enticing from a historical perspective. Tax refunds are running about 10-11% higher than last year, injecting billions in liquidity that typically boosts consumer spending and risk appetite in the March-April window.

Nvidia Shocks With $1-Trillion Target

No company better illustrates this potential than Nvidia (NVDA Quick QuoteNVDA - Free Report) , whose recent developments at the GTC 2026 conference underscore why technology may soon lead the recovery. Yesterday’s keynote from CEO Jensen Huang highlighted groundbreaking advancements that extend Nvidia’s leadership in AI infrastructure.

Partnerships with OpenClaw, Uber for autonomous vehicles, and Disney further validate Nvidia’s ecosystem reach, while the new Rubin Ultra architecture and AI factory initiatives signal massive scalability for enterprise AI deployment. Huang projected that AI chip sales from these platforms could approach $1 trillion through 2027, reflecting confidence in sustained demand across data centers, robotics, and edge computing.

“In fact, we are going to be short,” Huang added. “I am certain computing demand will be much higher than that.”

Nvidia also revealed its Vera Rubin Space Module, a platform designed for orbital data centers, geospatial intelligence, and autonomous space operations. And the announcement of DLSS 5, a next-generation AI-powered rendering system for RTX 50-series GPUs, promises photorealistic visuals and significant performance leaps in gaming and professional applications.

These updates come at an opportune moment. After a subpar start to 2026 marked by rotation into defensives, Nvidia’s shares have consolidated but remain well-supported by fundamentals. The company’s Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) reflects positive earnings estimate revisions and a track record of delivering on AI growth expectations.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The GTC revelations provide fresh catalysts that could reignite investor enthusiasm. In our experience, periods of geopolitical noise often create temporary valuation resets in high-quality growth names like Nvidia—resets in which patient investors have been historically rewarded.

Of course, risks remain. Escalation in the Middle East could pressure energy costs and supply chains further, and AI spending must continue translating into tangible ROI. Yet the broader picture feels constructive; corporate balance sheets are strong, productivity gains from AI are beginning to surface in surveys and early data, and seasonal patterns favor a spring lift.

Bottom Line

Markets rarely move in straight lines, and geopolitical events test our resolve. But history and current fundamentals suggest this Iran-related volatility is likely another chapter in the long pattern of markets looking past conflicts.

As we approach the historically favorable March-April period, technology—and Nvidia in particular—appears poised to reclaim the spotlight. In our view, the current pause may ultimately prove to be the setup for the next leg of the AI-driven cycle.

For those who may have stepped back during the early-year caution, the coming weeks could offer a thoughtful window to re-engage with secular leaders.