You’d think in an environment like we have now with sky high diesel and increasing EV efficiency that the stage would be set for a big bounce in the alternative energy transport space. Where are all those companies with the alternative energy trucks, cargo vans, and buses? Well, they’re still around, they just aren’t the most bullish looking cases in the market right now. In fact, I’ve got one of them here as today’s Bear of the Day.

I’m talking about Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) Blue Bird ((BLBD Quick QuoteBLBD - Free Report) ). The school bus manufacturer became one of those sneaky industrial winners nobody was talking about. Replacement demand was strong, pricing was strong, margins improved and investors got excited about the potential transition toward electric school buses.

Blue Bird is currently a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), and when you dig into the estimate revisions, it's pretty easy to see why. The big problem is next year. Sixty days ago, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings sat at $5.23 per share. Today? Just $4.40.

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Blue Bird Corporation Price and Consensus

Blue Bird Corporation price-consensus-chart | Blue Bird Corporation Quote

p> That's a decline of roughly 16% in only two months. Even worse, both analysts covering the stock have cut their estimates over the last 60 days. Nobody has taken their number higher. That's exactly the kind of estimate-revision trend that can put a stock in the penalty box.

And the weakness isn't limited to the full year. The current-quarter estimate has fallen from $1.61 to $1.48 over the last 60 days. The following quarter has dropped from $1.15 to $1.05. So we're not talking about one analyst tweaking a spreadsheet. We're seeing earnings expectations reset lower across multiple periods.

The stock price is telling you something too. BLBD closed October 2 at $55.60. The 52-week high? $83.39. That's a stock sitting roughly one-third below its high. Again, stocks don't drop because Wall Street is worried about what happened yesterday. Stocks drop because investors are worried about what's coming tomorrow. And those falling earnings estimates suggest there's some turbulence ahead.

Here's what makes this one tricky. Blue Bird isn't some fundamentally broken company. In fact, the current-year earnings estimate has actually moved higher over the last 60 days, from $4.73 to about $4.89. That's good. But stocks are discounting mechanisms.

The Automotive – Domestic industry ranks in the Top 23% of our Zacks Industry Rank. There are other names within the industry that are in the good graces of our Zacks Rank. These include Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks Fox Factory Holdings (FOXF) and Polaris (PII).