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Bear Of The Day: Groupon (GRPN)

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Groupon (GRPN - Free Report) has taken a nosedive since it reported Q4 earnings on February 18th. GRPN has lost 56% of its value in less than 2 weeks, and this may not be the end of misery for shareholders. This stock continues to disappoint investors with progressively worsening financial results. Analysts have been aggressively dropping estimates pushing GRPN into a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

This online-based coupon service has seen a falling topline for the past 12 consecutive quarters on a year-over-year basis. This is an enormous red flag for a business that isn’t able to turn a reliable profit. The online coupon space has been saturating quickly, and this has been significantly impacting Groupon’s ability to grow.

The company’s goods selling business had been a drag on the firm’s financials, and the company dumped this segment following earnings to focus on local experiences. Groupon has been desperately pivoting strategies ineffectively, displaying poor management capability, which we saw with the goods business.

Groupon has illustrated an inability to retain users with the number of active users dropping every quarter for the past 7 consecutive quarters. This is a dying business, and you can see this when going on the app. I live in Chicago and had once been an avid Groupon user, but frankly, the quality of deals the platform offers has gone downhill over the last two years.

Some may wonder how much further this stock can fall, considering it lost 95% of its value since its IPO in 2011. This company has proven its inability to compete in this saturated space, and management’s attempts to revive Groupon’s top has only caused more damage for the company. I think this stock is on its way to bankruptcy unless a buyout saves shareholders. Management doesn’t appear to have the proficiency to turn this dying business around.

Take Away

I wouldn’t recommend any positions on this stock because unless management makes some extraordinary systemic changes, this business will not be around for much longer. 

Like I said, a buyout from another online deal site is definitely in the cards considering how much this stock has fallen and would be the saving grace for shareholders.

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