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Profit from the Pros By Kevin Matras Executive Vice President
Stocks Down, But There's Hope On The Virus And Economic Front
Stocks closed lower yesterday as the bottoming process continues.
While the Dow has technically exited its bear market by closing 20% above its lowest close back on March 26th, that doesn't mean there can't be additional pullbacks.
The S&P and Nasdaq are technically still in their bear market as they only got as high as 17.55% and 13.66% from their lowest closes.
Support for all three indexes come in at their gap left on their charts from March 23rd. For the Dow that's 19,121.01; for the S&P that's 2,300.73. And for the Nasdaq that's 6,984.94.
Traders are likely reacting to the projections that the next two weeks will see the outbreak climb to its peak. The death toll estimates range from as low as 80,000 to as high as 200,000. A sobering statistic. One life lost is a tragedy. But if we come in at the low end or under, it will be a positive sign that the social distancing policies have been working, and that we can get on the other side of the curve having dodged the worst case scenario.
The market is also bracing for Friday's Employment Situation report. After last week's nearly 3.3 million people filing for unemployment in last Thursday's Weekly Jobless Claims, people are expecting the worst. The consensus at the moment is calling for a loss of -150,000 jobs. But the range is so large (-1.25 million on the extreme end), it's really anybody's guess.
Speaking of the Weekly Jobless Claims, we'll get another look at that this morning before Friday's report comes out. Estimates are for another 3.35 million new claims.
But as I mentioned yesterday, there are plenty of pockets of hope regarding our fight against the virus.
And lots of optimism that once the worst of the outbreak is behind us, the economy and stocks will soar as pent-up economic demand is unleashed.
Add in the trillions of dollars of aid/stimulus being injected into the economy, and talk of a long-awaited infrastructure package to come later in the year, and the inevitable rebound is set to be epic!
So start putting your list of dream stocks together.
And stay engaged so you can discover what new stocks will lead the market when it goes back up.
Moreover, don't squander this time with preventable mistakes. If you wished you would've traded past pullbacks or bear markets better, now is your chance. And since a large part of any recovery typically comes at the very beginning, there's never been a better time to prepare than now. So be sure to read my latest commentary...
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