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Profit from the Pros By Kevin Matras Executive Vice President
Stocks End Mixed, But Rally At The Close
Stocks closed mixed yesterday after making new correction lows. The Dow was down -0.33%. The S&P was down by -0.13%. The Nasdaq, however, was up 0.06%.
Yesterday was an interesting day. And I'll explain why in a moment.
But first, let me say that while the Nasdaq entered bear market territory back in March, the Dow and the S&P never did.
From their highest close to yesterday's intraday low, the Nasdaq, at its worst, was down by -29.19%. But the Dow was only down -15.14%. And the S&P was down by -19.55% before bouncing off their low.
Here's the interesting part. The S&P, unlike other sell-off days, didn't trade lower in a panic-induced plunge. Instead, it seemed to go down in a slow and measured way. And as it got closer to the -20% mark, it almost seemed like it was ticking down ever so gingerly. Almost like the index didn't want to break that threshold.
Even if you measure the decline from its all-time high, rather than its all-time high close, the S&P still never broke -20%, as it 'only' got as low as -19.92%.
And then, within the last 15 minutes of trading, the S&P came off their lows, which was down as much as -1.94% intraday, to finish down by only -0.13%. And that puts the decline from its all-time high close to yesterday's close at -18.06%.
So was yesterday's low the bottom? At least for the short-term? Or was it the bottom, period? Or was it just a head fake before we crash even lower?
Only time will tell. But yesterday's price action, as it approached bear market territory, and then stepped away, was fascinating to watch. And exciting to see it rebound at the close.
In other news, yesterday's PPI report showed inflation up 0.5% m/m, inline with expectations. And up 11.0% y/y, just above expectations for 10.7%, but below last month's pace of 11.2%. Ex-Food & Energy it was up 0.4% m/m, and 8.8% y/y (below the consensus and last month's pace). And ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services it was up 0.6% m/m, and 6.9% y/y (also below the consensus and last month's pace).
There's hope that inflation may have peaked. Some signs suggest that just may be the case (the slight downtick was a good start), but others suggest otherwise. Once again, only time will tell. Of course, that doesn't mean it won't stay elevated. Virtually everyone agrees it will remain relatively high for quite some time. But ceasing to go any higher is a step in the right direction. But again, we shall see.
Today we'll get another look at the economy with Import and Export Prices, and Consumer Sentiment.
And, of course, more earnings.
Let's see if yesterday's lows can hold. And if the market can build on yesterday's end-of-day rally.
If so, we might be done going down for a while.
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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