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Profit from the Pros By Kevin Matras Executive Vice President
Stocks Off To A Better Second Half Start Than Their First Half End
Stocks closed mixed but mostly higher on Tuesday after bouncing back from sharp intraday losses.
The Nasdaq led the way with a 1.75% gain after being down as much as -1.94% early on.
The S&P was next with a more modest gain of 0.16%. But they were down as much as -2.18% in the morning.
The Dow ended lower by -0.42%. But that was a big erasure of a large -2.39% deficit from earlier.
Both oil and natural gas plunged yesterday with crude down more than -8% and natural gas down by more than -3.5%. Just in the last 3 weeks alone, crude oil has fallen by more than -17.5% and is back under $100.
Energy prices are still elevated. But the pullback in energy, not to mention other commodities, bodes well for lower inflation readings to come.
And with that comes the potential for a lower interest rate target, and hope for a shallow recession (or avoiding one altogether).
There's still plenty of work to do on the inflation front. But falling energy prices is definitely a step in the right direction.
In other news, Factory Orders increased by 1.6% m/m, beating last month's 0.7% gain and the consensus for 0.5%.
Today we'll get MBA Mortgage Applications, the PMI Composite report, the ISM Services Index, and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report (or JOLTS for short).
We'll also get the FOMC Minutes from the Fed's June meeting. Traders will be looking for any clue as to what the Fed might do at their next meeting on July 26-27. As it stands now, the Fed is expected to raise rates by either 50 or 75 basis points.
The big report everyone is waiting for this week, however, is the Employment Situation report. The consensus is calling for 270,000 new jobs being created last month. If so, that would show the continuing strength of the labor market, and help allay fears of a hard recession.
But we've still got plenty of week and plenty of reports to get thru before then.
And we'll see if the lows from three weeks ago continue to hold. The longer they do, the better it is.
See you tomorrow,
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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