Stocks closed higher yesterday with all of the indexes in the green.
The markets spent most of the day in the red waiting for the FOMC Minutes to be released. Shortly afterwards, the markets turned higher, and on their way to their best levels of the day, before paring those to more modest gains by the close.
June's minutes showed the Fed committed to raising rates and reigning in their balance sheet as long as inflation remains elevated. The minutes also showed the likelihood of another 50-75 basis point rate hike at the July meeting (July 26-27). And the possibility of 'more restrictive' measures if inflation does not come down.
Pretty much what we had been expecting. And what they communicated in their June 15
th Fed Announcement and Press Conference.
The market cheered the news for two reasons. 1) The Fed continues to show their commitment to tackling inflation and restoring price stability, and will raise rates as much as needed to do so. 2) But also because inflation is likely to come down in upcoming reports, especially with oil down nearly -20% in just the last several weeks, as well as declines in other commodities.
So the Fed is prepared to fire even bigger guns at inflation, but just may not have to use them.
With the Fed Minutes out of the way, everybody's focus will now shift to the Employment Situation report on Friday. The consensus is calling for 270,000 new jobs being created last month. If so, that would show the continuing strength of the labor market, and help allay fears of a hard recession.
In other news, MBA Mortgage Applications were down -5.4% w/w, with purchases down -4.3%, and refi's down -7.7%.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report (or JOLTS for short) showed there were 11.254 million job openings available for May. That was down from April's 11.681M. But it still means there are literally millions more jobs available than there are unemployed people to fill them.
The PMI Composite report came in at 52.3. That was down from last month's 53.6, but above the consensus for 51.2. The Services Index came in at 52.7, besting last month's 51.6.
We also saw a stronger than expected services reading from the ISM Services Index. That came in at 55.3. Down a tad from last month's 55.9. But above the consensus for 54.8.
Today we'll get the Challenger Job-Cut Report, the ADP Employment Report, International Trade in Goods and Services, and Weekly Jobless Claims.
Should be a busy day.
And throughout, traders will be seeing if they can build on recent gains. It's been 3 weeks since the market made their lows. And the longer we can stay above it, the better.
Odds are also looking good given that earnings season gears up this month. Earnings season is always an exciting time since stocks typically go up during earnings season. And it's not uncommon to see individual stocks move 10%, 15%, even 20% or more in one day after an earnings report.
The key is getting into the right stocks.
If you want to learn how to potentially find big winners this earnings season BEFORE they report, be sure to read our latest commentary...
How to Find Big Winners This Earnings Season
Best,