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Profit from the Pros By Kevin Matras Executive Vice President
Stocks Closed Mixed, Debt Ceiling Vote And Friday?s Employment Report In Focus
Stocks closed mixed yesterday with the Dow finishing modestly lower, the S&P ending flat, while the Nasdaq ended modestly higher.
Interestingly, all of the major indexes opened higher on reports that a debt ceiling deal had been reached over the weekend. But uncertainty over its passage tempered/erased those gains by day's end. In D.C., a deal is not done until it passes both chambers. And that's what everyone awaits.
In other news, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (unadjusted) rose 1.5% m/m vs. last month's upwardly revised 0.3%. On a y/y basis it was down -1.1% vs. last month's 0.4% and views for -1.6%.
The FHFA House Price Index was up 0.6% m/m vs. the consensus for 0.3%. On a y/y basis it was up 3.6% vs. last month's upwardly revised pace of 4.3%.
And the Consumer Confidence Index came in better than expected at 102.3 vs. the consensus for 100.0, even though it did slip a bit from last month's upwardly revised 103.7 (which was previously listed as 101.3).
Today we'll get MBA Mortgage Applications, the Chicago PMI, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report (or JOLTS for short), the Beige Book report, and the State Street Investor Confidence Index.
Aside from the debt ceiling vote by Congress (remember, the deadline to pass is now Monday, June 5), the other thing investors will be paying close attention to is Friday's always important Employment Situation report.
After last Friday's uptick in inflation via the PCE index (which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge), the employment report will be watched closely as well. Are jobs still hot or cooling? Is the participation rate rising or falling? Is wage inflation continuing to moderate or did it tick up like the PCE just did?
This will be the last jobs report before the Fed meets on June 13-14. The consensus is still for a pause 2 weeks from now. But again, after last Friday's uptick in the PCE, suddenly more people have begun talking about another 25 basis point hike. But again, for now, the expectation is for a pause.
With only 3 more days left in this shortened week, it will likely be a busy one.
See you tomorrow,
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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