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Market Moves You Need to See
Kevin Matras   
Profit from the Pros
By Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President
Zacks Investment Research

Stocks Closed Lower As Bond Yields Rise

Stocks closed lower yesterday with all of the major indexes down by more than -1.20%, with the Nasdaq down by -1.87%.

Rising Treasury yields (the 10-year is now at a 16 year high), underscores the narrative of higher for longer. And that's weighing on stocks.

Not too long ago, yields were heading back down on the idea that the Fed would be cutting rates by 100 basis points next year, with some thinking it would begin sooner rather than later.

But after the last Fed meeting, they commented that they could still see one more rate hike by year's end, and that next year could see them cut rates by just 50 basis points rather than the 100 that had been expected.

In other news, yesterday's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report (or JOLTS for short) came in hotter than expected at 9.61M job openings vs. last month's upwardly revised 8.92M and views for 8.75M. This was a case of good news being bad. A hot labor market suggests higher rates might indeed be needed.

Although, the job report everybody is really waiting for is Friday's Employment Situation report.

Last month's report showed more jobs were created than expected, but that job growth cooled from its record setting pace, while hourly wage growth rose less than expected.

Robust job growth is wanted, but not rip-roaring job growth as that signals the increase in interest rates is not having as much of an effect at slowing the economy down (and thus inflation) as expected. So a solid number should be cheered on Friday, but not a blowout one.

But before that comes, we've got a full docket of reports to get thru today including MBA Mortgage Applications, the PMI Composite report, the ADP Employment Report, Factory Orders, and the ISM Services Index.

The markets were also transfixed on the House vote to remove the Speaker. And after the close, they did. Politics aside, it throws into question who will lead the House if they do? And what happens after the short-term funding bill expires on November 17. Every day is needed to get the budget figured out to avoid a government shutdown. And this only injects further uncertainty into the process and the markets.

Rough start to the new quarter so far.

The statistical odds still favor a strong Q4 rally.

But the current pullback has some wondering if it will come at all.

I'm in the rally camp. But the market is going to have to put in a bottom first.

See you tomorrow,

Adam Arif

Editor, Zacks Investment Research


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