Stocks closed lower yesterday, but well off their worst levels of the day, to end near their best levels of the day.

Once again, strong beats by many companies in the morning, such as Merck (positive EPS surprise of 6.70%), Northrop Grumman (positive EPS surprise 8.40%), and Union Pacific (positive EPS surprise of 7.60%), lifted those names, but not the market.

However, after the close, Microsoft posted a positive EPS surprise of 4.63%, and a positive sales surprise of 2.02%, which translated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 20.0% vs. this time last year, and a sales growth of 17.0%. They were up by more than 4.50% in after-hours trade.

Another mega-cap, Alphabet, reported after the close as well and posted a positive EPS surprise of 26.9%, and a positive sales surprise of 2.35%. That equated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 61.5% vs. this time last year, and a sales growth of 15.4%. They were up more 12% in after-hours trade.

There were many more after-hour beats. And the S&P and Nasdaq futures were up solidly because of it.

Today we'll get 114 more companies set to report, including AbbVie, Exxon Mobile, and HCA Healthcare, to name a few.

Next week we'll get 1,225 companies on deck to report.

In other news, yesterday's first estimate of Q1'24 GDP came in at 1.6% vs. last quarter's 3.4% and views for 2.3%.

The International Trade in Goods report saw the trade balance (deficit) expand to -$91.8 billion vs. last month's $90.3B and the consensus for -$91.0B. Imports fell by -1.7% m/m vs. last month's 2.9%. Exports fell by -3.5% m/m vs. last month's 2.9%.

Weekly Jobless Claims fell by -5,000 to 207,000 vs. last month's 212K and views for 215K. The 4-week moving average came in a little higher at 213.25K.

Retail Inventories slipped to 0.3% m/m vs. last month's 0.5% pace. Wholesale Inventories fell -0.4% m/m vs. last month's 0.4% and estimates for 0.3%.

The Pending Home Sales Index rose 3.4% m/m vs. last month's 1.6% and the consensus for 1.0%. The index itself came in at 78.2 vs. last month's 75.6.

And the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index notched lower to -8 vs. last month's -7.

Today we'll get Consumer Sentiment, and the report everybody has been waiting for, which is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. The is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. And we'll see if inflation ticked up or down in the latest reporting month. The consensus is calling for the headline number to be up 0.3% m/m, with the annual rate at 2.6%. The core rate (ex-food & energy) is expected to come in at 0.3% m/m as well, while the annual rate comes in at 2.7%.

Next week on Wednesday, 5/1, we'll get the next Fed announcement. The odds are virtually zero that there'll be a rate cut next week. (Odds favor September.) But the report is important nonetheless because the Fed maintains it will be data dependent, and that means it could have an influence in either shortening or elongating the Fed's timeline of when the first rate cuts will begin.

The PCE report comes out this morning at 8:30 AM ET.

The major indexes are all up for the week, so far, with just one more day to go. And it won't take much to keep it that way.

Best,