Stocks On Pace To Close Higher For The week, Half Day Today For Black Friday
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Stocks closed mostly lower on Wednesday, with only the small-cap Russell 2000 eking out a small gain.
But for the week, so far, all of the major indexes are in the green.
On Wednesday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index came in as expected with headline inflation up 0.2% m/m, in line with last month and views for the same. The y/y rate was up 2.3%, up from last month's 2.1%, but matching expectations. The core rate (ex-food & energy) was up 0.3% m/m, once again matching last month's pace and views for the same. The y/y rate was at 2.8%, up a bit from last month's 2.7%, but matching the consensus.
This was good news, especially coming on the heels of Tuesday's FOMC Minutes, which showed the Fed leaning toward more interest rate cuts by saying, "in discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2 percent and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time."
Speaking of interest rate cuts, the rest of the world continues to lower rates. New Zealand cut their benchmark by 50 basis points on Wednesday, marking the third cut this year, and putting their rate at 4.25%. And the Bank of Korea cut their lending rates by 25 basis points to 3%, for the second cut in as many months.
This follows cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), which have cut rates this year for the third time in October. The Bank of England (BOE) also cut rates last month for the second time this year. And China cut their lending rates by 25 basis points last month for both the one-year and five-year loan rates, which comes on top of a large stimulus packaged they announced totaling 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion).
In other news, Wednesday's second estimate for Q3'24 GDP came in as expected at 2.8%.
MBA Mortgage Applications rose 6.3% w/w with purchases up 12.4%, and refi's off -2.5%.
Durable Goods Orders were up 0.2% m/m vs. last month's -0.4% and views for 0.5%. Ex-Transportation it was up 0.1% vs. last month's 0.4% and estimates for 0.2%. Core Capital Goods were off -0.2% vs. last month's 0.3%.
Weekly Jobless Claims were down -2,000 at 213,000 vs. last month's 215K and expectations for 217K.
The Pending Home Sales Index was up 2.0% m/m vs. last month's 7.5% and the consensus for -1.8%. The index itself came in at 77.4 vs. last month's 75.9.
And the Survey of Business Uncertainty showed businesses expecting sales growth to be up 3.89% over the next 12 months vs. 3.81% last month, while they're forecasting employment growth to be up 4.24% vs. last month's 4.08%.
Not much on the economic calendar today. Although, OPEC will have a meeting and we'll see if there's any change in output quotas.
Today is Black Friday. We'll see how the shopping season kicks off as estimates start rolling in as the day goes on.
Note, today is a half day with the markets closing at 1:00 PM ET.
Next week starts a new month. Hard to believe there's only 4+ weeks left in the year.
It's been another stellar year in the markets, so far. And it looks like we're gearing up to finish the year on an even stronger note.
So make sure you're taking full advantage of it.
Best,
Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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