Stocks closed mostly higher yesterday, and finished the month in pretty good shape. This was the 7th up day in a row for the S&P 500.

Interestingly, the S&P for the month of April was down as much -13.8% at its worst just a few weeks ago, but ended the month down by only -0.76%. The Nasdaq was actually down as much as -14.5% at its worst during the month, but closed the month with a gain of 0.85%.

Yesterday morning's GDP report put the first of three estimates for Q1'25 GDP at -0.3% vs. views for 0.2%. That compares to Q4'24 of 2.4%. While the missed number was disappointing, especially it being negative, it was significantly better than the GDPNow forecast for -2.7%.

We also got another look at inflation yesterday with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index (which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge). The headline number was flat (0.0%) m/m vs. last month's 0.4% and views for 0.0%. The y/y rate was up 2.3% vs. last month's 2.7% and estimates for 2.2%. The core rate (ex-food & energy) was flat as well (0.0%) m/m vs. last month's 0.5% and estimates for 0.1%, while the y/y rate eased to 2.6% vs. last month's 3.0% and expectations for 2.6%.

The ADP Employment Report estimated that private payrolls grew by 62,000 in April vs. last month's 147,000 and estimates for 125,000.

But the jobs report everyone is really waiting for is Friday's always important Employment Situation report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The consensus going into Friday's report is for 130,000 new jobs to have been created (125K in the private sector and 5K in the public), with the unemployment rate staying steady at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings up 0.3% m/m (vs. last month's 0.3%), and 3.9% y/y (vs. last month's 3.8%).

After the close yesterday we got earnings from Microsoft, and they posted a positive EPS surprise of 8.12% and a positive sales surprise of 2.46%. That translated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 17.7% vs. this time last year, and a sales growth of 13.3%. They were up 0.31% in the regular session, and up another 6.20% in after-hours trade following earnings.

Meta reported after the close yesterday as well and posted a positive EPS surprise of 23.2% and a positive sales surprise of 2.61%. That equated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 36.5%, and a sales growth of 16.0%. They were off -0.98% in the regular session, but were up 6.00% in after-hours trade.

We'll hear from another 359 companies on deck to report today, including two more Mag 7 stocks -- Apple and Amazon.

YTD, the Dow is only down -4.41%, the S&P is down -5.31%, and the Nasdaq is down -9.65%.

If we can start getting some good news on the trade deals the White House has been working on (Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said we are "very close on India," and that they've had "substantial talks" with Japan, and that the "contours of a deal" with South Korea are progressing as well) that could allay tariff fears and reignite the market.

And, of course, any kind of constructive news that would appear to de-escalate trade tensions with China would also be cheered.

In the meantime, the momentum is to the upside. That does not preclude volatility. But it would appear that the worst of the tariff news is behind us. And that suggests we could see more upside to come.

See you tomorrow,