Stocks Closed Higher Again Yesterday, All Eyes On This Morning's Employment Report
Image: Bigstock
Stocks closed higher again yesterday with the S&P 500 extending their winning streak to day 8.
Positive earnings surprises from Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday afternoon (not to mention double-digit growth rates on both sales and earnings) lifted stocks yesterday.
After the close yesterday, we heard from heavyweights Apple and Amazon.
Apple posted a positive EPS surprise of 2.48%, and a positive sales surprise of 1.16%. That translated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 7.84% vs. this time last year, and a sales growth of 5.08%. Although, services and wearables fell short. They were up 0.39% in the regular session before earnings, but down -2.70% in after-hours following earnings.
Amazon posted a positive EPS surprise of 17.8%, and a positive sales surprise of 0.71%. That equated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 40.7%, and a sales growth of 8.62%. While they offered softer guidance on tariff uncertainty, CEO Andy Jassy said he was "optimistic" they could emerge from this tariff uncertainty even stronger, pointing to past periods of uncertainty where that was the case. They were up 3.13% in the regular session, but off -4.40% in after-hours trade.
Today we'll hear from another 91 companies in queue to report, including Exxon Mobile and Berkshire Hathaway.
In other news yesterday, the PMI Manufacturing Index came in at 50.2, which was in line with last month, but under the consensus for 50.7.
The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 48.7, just under last month's 49.0, but above estimates for 47.9.
Weekly Jobless Claims rose by 18,000 to 241,000 vs. estimates for 221,000. Although, the smoother 4-week moving average only rose 5,500 to 226,000.
And the Challenger Job-Cut Report dropped all the way down to 105,441 announced layoffs from last month's 275,240.
But the jobs report everyone is waiting for is this morning's Employment Situation report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The consensus is for 130,000 new jobs to have been created (125K in the private sector and 5K in the public), with the unemployment rate staying steady at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings up 0.3% m/m (vs. last month's 0.3%), and 3.9% y/y (vs. last month's 3.8%).
We'll also get Factory Orders and the Baker Hughes Rig Count report.
So far, earnings season has come in largely better-than-expected. There's still lots more earnings season to go. But it's shaping up well.
If we can start getting some good news on the trade deals the White House has been working on (Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said we are "very close on India," and that they've had "substantial talks" with Japan, and that the "contours of a deal" with South Korea are progressing as well), that could allay tariff fears and reignite the market.
Yesterday it was reported that European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said that Brussels wants to increase purchases from the U.S. by $56 billion, and that they are making progress on a deal with the White House. But said he objects to keeping a 10% tariff in place if a deal is made.
We should soon start hearing announcements of actual deals, rather than just optimism on negotiations. Once we do, that could usher in a new leg up. And the more deals we hear about, the better.
In the meantime, the momentum in the market continues to favor the upside.
A decent jobs report, solid earnings, or some good news on tariffs could go a long way in keeping this winning streak alive.
Best,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
|