Stocks Closed Higher On Friday, And For The Week, For The Second Week In A Row
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Stocks closed higher on Friday and for the week. That makes it 2 up weeks in a row for the Dow and the S&P 500.
It also makes 9 up days in a row for the S&P, the longest winning streak in more than two decades.
Moreover, the plunge we saw in the markets after the tariffs were announced on April 2 has been completely erased and then some (at least for the S&P and Nasdaq). The Dow, small-cap Russell 2000 and mid-cap S&P 400 still have some ground to make up. But they are all up double-digits from their intramonth lows made early last month.
News that China has exempted tariffs on about a quarter of U.S. goods coming into their country was cheered by the market. This comes on the heels of the U.S. creating exemptions on smartphones, semiconductors, and other electronic components and devices coming from China. The market also got a lift on reports that China is "assessing" potential trade talks with the U.S.
In other news, the market also reacted positively to Friday's better-than-expected Employment Situation report. It showed 177,000 new jobs were created in April (167K in the private sector and 10K in the public sector) vs. the consensus for 130,000 (125K private and 5K public). The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, in line with last month and views for the same. The participation rate ticked up to 62.6% from last month's 62.5%. And average hourly earnings rose less than expected at 0.2% m/m vs. last month's 0.3% and expectations for 0.3%, with the y/y rate at 3.8% vs. last month's 3.8% and expectations for 3.9%.
Although, tallies for February were revised down by -15,000 to 102K, and March was revised lower by -43,000 to 185K.
The industries with the biggest job gains were as follows: Health Care added 51,000 new jobs; Transportation & Warehousing picked up 29,000; employment in Financial Activities increased by 14,000; and Social Assistance jobs rose by 8,000.
The strong jobs report helps undercut worries of a recession after Wednesday's first (of three) estimates for Q1'25 GDP, which was down -0.3%.
But even that report, when looking at the details, suggests a strong underlying economy. A rush of imports in Q1 before the new tariffs were set to take effect led to a widening trade gap, which weighed on GDP numbers. So did the -5.1% contraction in government spending. But the private sector exhibited strength with a surge 21.9% in business investment, helped by a 22.5% increase in equipment investment. And final sales to private domestic purchasers (a closely watched barometer of business and consumer health) grew by 3%. In fact, that's a faster pace than Q4's 2.9%, when overall GDP came in at 2.4%. After-tax personal income rose 2.7% vs. last quarter's 1.9%. And while consumer spending slowed, it was still up 1.8%.
Looking beyond the headline number shows the economy's resilience. And is likely why stocks opened lower on the news on Wednesday, but upon further analysis, finished higher by the close.
At the moment, the major indexes are only down single-digits for the year, so far. The Dow is only off -2.88%; the S&P is down -3.31%; the Nasdaq is down -6.90%. Even the small-cap and mid-cap indexes are only down -9.39% and -6.05% respectively.
With the worst of the tariff fears seemingly behind us, and a resilient underlying economy, stocks look poised for another banner year.
So, make sure you're taking full advantage of it.
See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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